KAUS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST18%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

25%

18%

18%

Consensus

18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 13.9¢Risks 13.85u

WN2NO 86.1¢Risks 86.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +86.15u · WN2 −86.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00	24.9%	43.8%	16.4%	49.4%	0.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	24.9%	43.8%	16.4%	49.4%	0.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00	24.9%	42.9%	16.4%	49.4%	0.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:32+00:00	24.9%	42.9%	16.4%	49.4%	0.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	31.2%	42.9%	16.7%	49.4%	0.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	31.2%	42.9%	16.7%	49.4%	0.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:31+00:00	31.2%	44.5%	16.7%	49.4%	0.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:11+00:00	31.2%	44.5%	16.7%	49.4%	0.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	31.2%	44.5%	19.9%	49.4%	0.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	31.2%	44.5%	19.9%	49.4%	0.8%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	31.2%	44.5%	19.9%	49.4%	0.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	31.2%	44.5%	19.9%	49.4%	0.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	17.2%	44.5%	19.9%	45.0%	43.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	17.2%	44.5%	19.9%	45.0%	43.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	17.2%	44.5%	19.9%	45.0%	43.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	17.2%	44.5%	19.9%	45.0%	43.2%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	17.2%	44.5%	19.3%	45.0%	43.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	17.2%	44.5%	19.3%	45.0%	43.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	17.2%	44.5%	19.3%	45.0%	43.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	24.2%	44.5%	19.3%	45.0%	43.2%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	24.2%	44.5%	19.3%	45.0%	43.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	24.2%	44.5%	19.3%	45.0%	43.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	24.2%	44.5%	19.3%	45.0%	43.2%
2026-10-16T04:24:51+00:00	24.2%	44.5%	19.3%	45.0%	43.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	24.2%	44.5%	16.2%	45.0%	43.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	24.2%	44.5%	16.2%	45.0%	43.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	24.2%	44.5%	16.2%	45.0%	43.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	18.2%	44.5%	16.2%	45.0%	69.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:26+00:00	18.2%	44.5%	16.2%	45.0%	69.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	18.2%	44.5%	16.2%	45.0%	69.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	18.2%	44.5%	16.2%	45.0%	69.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	18.2%	44.5%	16.2%	45.0%	69.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00	18.2%	31.8%	12.8%	45.0%	69.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	18.2%	31.8%	12.8%	45.0%	69.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	18.2%	31.8%	12.8%	45.0%	69.9%
2026-10-16T13:28:48+00:00	19.7%	31.8%	12.8%	35.8%	69.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00	19.8%	31.8%	12.8%	35.8%	70.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:42+00:00	19.8%	32.4%	12.8%	35.8%	70.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	19.8%	32.3%	12.8%	35.8%	70.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	19.8%	32.3%	12.8%	35.8%	70.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	19.8%	32.3%	13.3%	35.8%	70.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	19.8%	32.3%	13.3%	35.8%	70.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	19.8%	32.3%	13.3%	35.8%	70.3%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00	19.8%	32.3%	13.3%	35.8%	57.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	19.8%	32.3%	13.3%	35.8%	57.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	19.8%	32.3%	13.3%	35.8%	57.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	19.8%	32.3%	13.3%	35.8%	57.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	19.8%	32.3%	13.3%	42.8%	57.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	19.8%	32.3%	19.0%	42.8%	57.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	19.8%	32.3%	19.0%	42.8%	57.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	19.8%	32.3%	19.0%	42.8%	57.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	23.0%	32.3%	19.0%	42.8%	57.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	23.0%	32.3%	19.0%	42.8%	57.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	23.0%	32.3%	19.0%	42.8%	57.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	23.0%	32.3%	19.0%	42.8%	57.8%
2026-10-17T04:42:16+00:00	23.0%	32.3%	19.0%	42.8%	57.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	23.0%	32.3%	17.9%	42.8%	57.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	23.0%	32.3%	17.9%	42.8%	57.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	23.0%	32.3%	17.9%	42.8%	57.8%
2026-10-17T07:44:53+00:00	21.0%	32.3%	17.9%	43.8%	50.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	21.0%	32.3%	17.9%	43.8%	50.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	21.0%	32.3%	17.9%	43.8%	50.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	21.0%	32.3%	17.9%	43.8%	50.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	21.0%	32.3%	17.9%	43.8%	50.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	21.0%	58.3%	12.6%	43.8%	50.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	21.0%	58.3%	12.6%	43.8%	50.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	21.0%	58.3%	12.6%	43.8%	50.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	19.3%	58.3%	12.6%	43.8%	50.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	19.3%	58.3%	12.6%	43.8%	50.0%
2026-10-17T15:25:07+00:00	19.3%	47.0%	12.6%	43.8%	50.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	19.3%	47.0%	12.6%	43.8%	50.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	19.3%	47.0%	10.3%	43.8%	50.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	19.3%	47.0%	10.3%	43.8%	50.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	19.3%	47.0%	10.3%	43.8%	50.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	19.3%	47.0%	10.3%	43.8%	50.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	17.6%	47.0%	10.3%	32.0%	46.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	17.6%	47.0%	10.3%	32.0%	46.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	17.6%	47.0%	10.3%	32.0%	46.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	17.6%	47.0%	10.3%	32.0%	46.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	17.6%	47.0%	9.9%	32.0%	46.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	17.6%	47.0%	9.9%	32.0%	46.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	17.6%	47.0%	9.9%	32.0%	46.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	17.6%	47.0%	9.9%	32.0%	46.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	17.1%	47.0%	9.9%	32.0%	46.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	17.1%	47.0%	9.9%	32.0%	46.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	17.1%	47.0%	9.9%	32.0%	46.1%
2026-10-18T04:14:28+00:00	17.1%	47.0%	9.9%	32.0%	46.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	17.1%	47.0%	13.7%	32.0%	46.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	17.1%	47.0%	13.7%	32.0%	46.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	17.1%	47.0%	13.7%	32.0%	46.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	17.1%	47.0%	13.7%	32.0%	46.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:38+00:00	12.4%	47.0%	13.7%	29.5%	30.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	12.4%	47.0%	13.7%	29.5%	30.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	12.4%	47.0%	13.7%	29.5%	30.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	12.4%	47.0%	13.7%	29.5%	30.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	12.4%	32.1%	6.0%	29.5%	30.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00	12.4%	32.1%	6.0%	29.5%	30.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:50+00:00	12.4%	32.1%	6.0%	29.5%	30.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	12.4%	32.1%	6.0%	29.5%	30.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	14.3%	32.1%	6.0%	29.5%	30.4%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	14.3%	32.1%	6.0%	29.5%	30.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00	14.3%	24.9%	6.0%	29.5%	30.4%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	14.3%	24.9%	6.0%	29.5%	30.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	14.3%	24.9%	6.3%	29.5%	30.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	14.3%	24.9%	6.3%	29.5%	30.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	14.3%	24.9%	6.3%	29.5%	30.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	14.3%	24.9%	6.3%	30.2%	31.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	14.3%	24.9%	6.3%	30.2%	31.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	14.3%	24.9%	6.3%	30.2%	31.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	14.3%	24.9%	6.3%	30.2%	31.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	14.3%	24.9%	6.3%	30.2%	31.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	14.3%	24.9%	5.1%	30.2%	31.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	14.3%	24.9%	5.1%	30.2%	31.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	14.3%	24.9%	5.1%	30.2%	31.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	13.8%	24.9%	5.1%	30.2%	31.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	13.8%	24.9%	5.1%	30.2%	31.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	13.8%	24.9%	5.1%	30.2%	31.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	13.8%	24.9%	5.1%	30.2%	31.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:49+00:00	8.3%	25.0%	4.0%	29.5%	24.1%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	8.3%	25.0%	4.0%	29.5%	24.1%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	8.3%	25.0%	4.0%	29.5%	24.1%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	8.3%	25.0%	2.5%	29.5%	24.1%
2026-10-19T18:14:40+00:00	8.3%	25.0%	2.5%	29.5%	24.1%
2026-10-19T19:00:11+00:00	8.3%	25.0%	2.5%	29.5%	24.1%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00	9.8%	25.0%	2.5%	17.9%	18.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	9.8%	25.0%	2.5%	17.9%	18.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	9.8%	25.0%	2.5%	17.9%	18.3%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	9.8%	25.0%	2.5%	17.9%	18.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	9.8%	25.0%	2.5%	17.9%	18.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	9.8%	25.0%	2.7%	17.9%	18.3%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	9.8%	25.0%	2.7%	17.9%	18.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	9.8%	25.0%	2.7%	17.9%	18.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	9.4%	25.0%	2.7%	17.9%	18.3%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	9.4%	25.0%	2.7%	17.9%	18.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	9.4%	25.0%	2.7%	17.9%	18.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	89.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	88.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	25%	86.6°F	2.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	18%	84.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	84.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	9%	82.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261022-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 89°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗