KAUS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST18%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

25%

18%

18%

Consensus

18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 13.9¢Risks 13.85u

WN2NO 86.1¢Risks 86.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +86.15u · WN2 −86.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	62.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	48.7%	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	47.4%	—	—	22.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	41.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	0.0%	34.2%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	27.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	13.4%	21.9%	0.1%	—	29.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	50.7%	12.8%	14.4%	—	27.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	33.0%	20.0%	16.0%	—	25.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	20.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	29.5%	21.8%	12.3%	—	27.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	23.7%	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	24.5%	26.5%	6.9%	—	17.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	7.8%	27.4%	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	17.8%	31.4%	6.8%	—	17.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	17.2%	26.4%	—	—	16.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	17.8%	23.7%	5.0%	—	12.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	12.7%	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	19.7%	23.2%	3.8%	—	15.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	10.0%	14.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	13.4%	11.8%	3.8%	—	7.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	15.6%	10.1%	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	20.6%	14.3%	1.5%	3.3%	10.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	36.7%	0.0%	—	6.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	89.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	88.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	25%	86.6°F	2.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	18%	84.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	84.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	9%	82.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261022-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 89°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗