WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KAUS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
64%
EPS
58%
HRES
50%
AIFS
22%
WN2
15%
Consensus
56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 39.1¢Risks 39.15u
VS
WN2NO 60.9¢Risks 60.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +60.85u · WN2 −60.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 28.6% · 2026-10-19T04:31:17+00:00AIFS Single: 28.6% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00AIFS Single: 28.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00AIFS Single: 28.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:00AIFS Single: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:31+00:00AIFS Single: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00AIFS Single: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00AIFS Single: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:21+00:00AIFS Single: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T11:21:09+00:00AIFS Single: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00AIFS Single: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.1% · 2026-10-19T04:31:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.1% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.9% · 2026-10-19T11:21:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.9% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.9% · 2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.9% · 2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.5% · 2026-10-19T04:31:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.6% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.8% · 2026-10-19T11:21:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.8% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.8% · 2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.7% · 2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00IFS HRES: 41.8% · 2026-10-19T04:31:17+00:00IFS HRES: 41.8% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00IFS HRES: 41.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00IFS HRES: 41.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:31+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:21+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:09+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00ICON: 61.6% · 2026-10-19T04:31:17+00:00ICON: 61.6% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00ICON: 61.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00ICON: 61.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:00ICON: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:31+00:00ICON: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00ICON: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00ICON: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:21+00:00ICON: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T11:21:09+00:00ICON: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00ICON: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00ICON: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00ICON: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:0010-19 04:3110-19 09:4910-19 14:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:31:17+00:0028.6%56.1%16.5%41.8%61.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:0028.6%56.1%25.6%41.8%61.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:0028.6%56.1%25.6%41.8%61.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:0028.6%56.1%25.6%41.8%61.6%
2026-10-19T07:33:31+00:0024.3%56.1%25.6%50.0%63.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:0024.3%56.1%25.6%50.0%63.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:0024.3%56.1%25.6%50.0%63.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:0024.3%56.1%25.6%50.0%63.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:21+00:0024.3%56.1%25.6%50.0%63.6%
2026-10-19T11:21:09+00:0024.3%57.9%14.8%50.0%63.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:0024.3%57.9%14.8%50.0%63.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:0024.3%57.9%14.8%50.0%63.6%
2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:0021.6%57.9%14.8%50.0%63.6%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:0021.6%57.9%14.7%50.0%63.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend87%89.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
ICON64%88.2°F4.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble58%87.0°F2.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%87.0°F4.5°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS HRES50%86.5°F5.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single22%82.9°F4.6°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 215%82.6°F3.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261023-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 87°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗