KAUS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

58%

50%

22%

15%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 39.1¢Risks 39.15u

WN2NO 60.9¢Risks 60.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +60.85u · WN2 −60.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	33.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	27.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	54.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	45.3%	—	—	35.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	61.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	42.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	47.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	0.1%	20.8%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	60.4%	48.6%	0.3%	—	38.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	55.8%	37.8%	32.3%	—	42.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	50.8%	37.2%	22.2%	—	32.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	40.0%	—	—	14.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	49.2%	39.7%	29.5%	—	31.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	38.0%	—	—	30.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	42.5%	30.8%	25.8%	—	26.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	25.3%	30.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	50.0%	33.0%	29.1%	—	31.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	44.6%	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	37.3%	25.1%	24.4%	—	20.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	41.5%	21.7%	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	47.1%	24.0%	24.7%	12.6%	26.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	31.7%	—	—	15.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	87%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	64%	88.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	58%	87.0°F	2.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	87.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	86.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	82.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	82.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261023-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 87°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗