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KAUS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
44%
EPS
36%
HRES
34%
AIFS
14%
WN2
8%
Consensus
20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 26.1¢Risks 26.05u
VS
WN2NO 74.0¢Risks 73.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +73.95u · WN2 −73.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 15.8% · 2026-10-20T04:05:13+00:00AIFS Single: 15.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00AIFS Single: 15.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00AIFS Single: 15.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00AIFS Single: 15.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00AIFS Single: 13.5% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00AIFS Single: 13.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00AIFS Single: 13.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00AIFS Single: 13.5% · 2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 13.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 13.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.5% · 2026-10-20T04:05:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.5% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.7% · 2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.6% · 2026-10-20T04:05:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.9% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.1% · 2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-20T04:05:13+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00IFS HRES: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00IFS HRES: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00ICON: 44.3% · 2026-10-20T04:05:13+00:00ICON: 44.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00ICON: 44.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00ICON: 44.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00ICON: 44.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00ICON: 44.0% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00ICON: 44.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00ICON: 44.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00ICON: 44.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00ICON: 44.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00ICON: 44.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 44.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 44.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:0010-20 04:0510-20 08:3710-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:05:13+00:0015.8%40.5%6.6%33.0%44.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:0015.8%40.5%6.6%33.0%44.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:0015.8%40.5%12.9%33.0%44.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:0015.8%40.5%12.9%33.0%44.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:0015.8%40.5%12.9%33.0%44.3%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:0013.5%40.5%12.9%33.0%44.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:0013.5%40.5%12.9%33.0%44.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:0013.5%40.5%12.9%33.0%44.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:0013.5%40.5%12.9%33.0%44.0%
2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:0013.5%35.7%8.1%33.5%44.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:0013.5%35.7%8.1%33.5%44.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0013.5%35.7%8.1%33.5%44.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:0013.5%35.7%8.1%33.5%44.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON44%86.9°F4.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble36%86.5°F2.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast35%86.0°F3.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS HRES34%85.6°F4.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single14%82.8°F4.3°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend13%85.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 28%82.8°F3.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261023-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Austin runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗