KAUS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

36%

34%

13%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 26.1¢Risks 26.05u

WN2NO 74.0¢Risks 73.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +73.95u · WN2 −73.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	48.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	39.6%	—	—	30.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	55.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	34.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	0.1%	16.3%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	36.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	53.5%	41.6%	0.2%	—	32.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	30.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	48.5%	31.0%	26.0%	—	35.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	43.2%	30.3%	16.9%	—	25.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	32.6%	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	41.3%	32.3%	23.0%	—	24.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	30.4%	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	34.5%	23.8%	19.5%	—	20.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	19.0%	23.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	41.3%	25.5%	22.1%	—	24.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	35.9%	17.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	28.9%	18.4%	17.8%	—	14.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	32.6%	15.4%	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	37.6%	17.1%	17.7%	8.2%	19.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	23.4%	—	—	10.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	44%	86.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	86.5°F	2.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	35%	86.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	85.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	82.8°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	85.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	82.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261023-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Austin runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗