KAUS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST6%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

19%

14%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 14.0¢Risks 14.00u

WN2NO 86.0¢Risks 86.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +86.00u · WN2 −86.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:48+00:00	12.0%	42.1%	9.7%	36.0%	4.4%
2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00	12.2%	42.1%	9.8%	36.1%	4.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:42+00:00	12.2%	42.1%	9.8%	36.1%	4.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	12.2%	42.1%	9.8%	36.1%	4.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	12.2%	42.1%	9.8%	36.1%	4.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	12.2%	42.1%	10.1%	36.1%	4.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	12.2%	42.1%	10.1%	36.1%	4.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	12.2%	42.1%	10.1%	36.1%	4.5%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00	12.6%	42.1%	10.1%	36.1%	62.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	12.6%	42.1%	10.1%	36.1%	62.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	12.6%	42.1%	10.1%	36.1%	62.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	12.6%	42.1%	10.1%	36.1%	62.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	12.6%	42.1%	10.1%	34.9%	62.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	12.6%	42.1%	12.8%	34.9%	62.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	12.6%	42.1%	12.8%	34.9%	62.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	12.6%	42.1%	12.8%	34.9%	62.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	12.9%	42.1%	12.8%	34.9%	62.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	12.9%	42.1%	12.8%	34.9%	62.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	12.9%	42.1%	12.8%	34.9%	62.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	12.9%	42.1%	12.8%	34.9%	62.2%
2026-10-17T04:42:16+00:00	12.9%	42.1%	12.8%	34.9%	62.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	12.9%	42.1%	12.0%	34.9%	62.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	12.9%	42.1%	12.0%	34.9%	62.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	12.9%	42.1%	12.0%	34.9%	62.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:53+00:00	16.4%	42.1%	12.0%	36.9%	58.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	16.4%	42.1%	12.0%	36.9%	58.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	16.4%	42.1%	12.0%	36.9%	58.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	16.4%	42.1%	12.0%	36.9%	58.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	16.4%	42.1%	12.0%	36.9%	58.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	16.4%	42.5%	11.9%	36.9%	58.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	16.4%	42.5%	11.9%	36.9%	58.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	16.4%	42.5%	11.9%	36.9%	58.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	13.0%	42.5%	11.9%	37.1%	58.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	13.0%	42.7%	12.0%	36.9%	58.3%
2026-10-17T15:25:07+00:00	13.0%	32.8%	12.0%	36.9%	58.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	13.0%	32.8%	12.0%	36.9%	58.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	13.0%	32.8%	8.2%	36.9%	58.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	13.0%	32.8%	8.2%	36.9%	58.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	13.0%	32.8%	8.2%	36.9%	58.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	13.0%	32.8%	8.2%	36.9%	58.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	13.8%	32.8%	8.2%	30.9%	54.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	13.8%	32.8%	8.2%	30.9%	54.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	13.8%	32.8%	8.2%	30.9%	54.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	13.8%	32.8%	8.2%	30.9%	54.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	13.8%	32.8%	7.6%	30.9%	54.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	13.8%	32.8%	7.6%	30.9%	54.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	13.8%	32.8%	7.6%	30.9%	54.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	13.8%	32.8%	7.6%	30.9%	54.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	13.4%	32.8%	7.6%	30.9%	54.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	13.4%	32.8%	7.6%	30.9%	54.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	13.4%	32.8%	7.6%	30.9%	54.4%
2026-10-18T04:14:28+00:00	13.4%	32.8%	7.6%	30.9%	54.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	13.4%	32.8%	11.6%	30.9%	54.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	13.4%	32.8%	11.6%	30.9%	54.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	13.4%	32.8%	11.6%	30.9%	54.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	13.4%	32.8%	11.6%	30.9%	54.4%
2026-10-18T08:01:38+00:00	12.1%	32.8%	11.6%	25.0%	47.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	12.1%	32.8%	11.6%	25.0%	47.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	12.1%	32.8%	11.6%	25.0%	47.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	12.1%	32.8%	11.6%	25.0%	47.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	12.1%	21.2%	4.9%	25.0%	47.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00	12.1%	21.2%	4.9%	25.0%	47.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:50+00:00	12.1%	21.2%	4.9%	25.0%	47.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	12.1%	21.2%	4.9%	25.0%	47.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	12.9%	21.2%	4.9%	25.0%	47.4%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	12.9%	21.2%	4.9%	25.0%	47.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00	12.9%	15.9%	4.9%	25.0%	47.4%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	12.9%	15.9%	4.9%	25.0%	47.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	12.9%	15.9%	5.4%	25.0%	47.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	12.9%	15.9%	5.4%	25.0%	47.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	12.9%	15.9%	5.4%	25.0%	47.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	11.7%	15.9%	5.4%	23.4%	42.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	11.7%	15.9%	5.4%	23.4%	42.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	11.7%	15.9%	5.4%	23.4%	42.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	11.7%	15.9%	5.4%	23.4%	42.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	11.7%	15.9%	5.4%	23.4%	42.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	11.7%	15.9%	4.4%	23.4%	42.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	11.7%	15.9%	4.4%	23.4%	42.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	11.7%	15.9%	4.4%	23.4%	42.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	12.1%	15.9%	4.4%	23.4%	42.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	12.1%	15.9%	4.4%	23.4%	42.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	12.1%	15.9%	4.4%	23.4%	42.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	12.1%	15.9%	4.4%	23.4%	42.2%
2026-10-19T04:31:18+00:00	12.1%	15.9%	4.4%	23.4%	42.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	12.1%	15.9%	8.3%	23.4%	42.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	12.1%	15.9%	8.3%	23.4%	42.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:00	12.1%	15.9%	8.3%	23.4%	42.2%
2026-10-19T07:33:31+00:00	8.8%	15.9%	8.3%	27.4%	39.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	8.8%	15.9%	8.3%	27.4%	39.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	8.8%	15.9%	8.3%	27.4%	39.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	8.8%	15.9%	8.3%	27.4%	39.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:21+00:00	8.8%	15.9%	8.3%	27.4%	39.5%
2026-10-19T11:21:09+00:00	8.8%	15.9%	3.2%	27.4%	39.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00	8.8%	15.9%	3.2%	27.4%	39.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	8.8%	15.9%	3.2%	27.4%	39.5%
2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00	7.5%	15.9%	3.2%	27.4%	39.5%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00	7.5%	15.9%	3.2%	27.4%	39.5%
2026-10-19T15:13:49+00:00	7.5%	14.9%	3.2%	27.4%	39.5%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	7.5%	14.9%	3.2%	27.4%	39.5%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	7.5%	14.9%	3.2%	27.4%	39.5%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	7.5%	14.9%	2.5%	27.4%	39.5%
2026-10-19T18:14:40+00:00	7.5%	14.9%	2.5%	27.4%	39.5%
2026-10-19T19:00:11+00:00	7.5%	14.9%	2.5%	27.4%	39.5%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00	7.2%	14.9%	2.5%	20.0%	29.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	7.2%	14.9%	2.5%	20.0%	29.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	7.2%	14.9%	2.5%	20.0%	29.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	7.2%	14.9%	2.5%	20.0%	29.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	7.2%	14.9%	2.5%	20.0%	29.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	7.2%	14.9%	2.1%	20.0%	29.0%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	7.2%	14.9%	2.1%	20.0%	29.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	7.2%	14.9%	2.1%	20.0%	29.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	7.5%	14.9%	2.1%	20.0%	29.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	7.5%	14.9%	2.1%	20.0%	29.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	7.5%	14.9%	2.1%	20.0%	29.0%
2026-10-20T04:05:14+00:00	7.5%	14.9%	2.1%	20.0%	29.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	7.5%	14.9%	2.1%	20.0%	29.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00	7.5%	14.9%	4.8%	20.0%	29.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	7.5%	14.9%	4.8%	20.0%	29.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	7.5%	14.9%	4.8%	20.0%	29.0%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00	5.8%	14.9%	4.8%	20.0%	25.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	5.8%	14.9%	4.8%	20.0%	25.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	5.8%	14.9%	4.8%	20.0%	25.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00	5.8%	14.9%	4.8%	20.0%	25.7%
2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00	5.8%	13.5%	2.3%	19.1%	25.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	5.8%	13.5%	2.3%	19.1%	25.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	5.8%	13.5%	2.3%	19.1%	25.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	5.8%	13.5%	2.3%	19.1%	25.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00	5.7%	13.5%	2.3%	19.1%	25.7%
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00	5.7%	13.5%	2.3%	19.1%	25.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	26%	86.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	85.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	18%	86.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	86.5°F	2.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	82.8°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	82.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	85.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261023-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Austin · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗