KAUS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST6%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

19%

14%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 14.0¢Risks 14.00u

WN2NO 86.0¢Risks 86.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +86.00u · WN2 −86.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	28.8%	—	—	20.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	28.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	0.0%	9.3%	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	39.6%	28.6%	0.1%	—	20.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	34.3%	19.4%	15.6%	—	22.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	28.9%	18.4%	9.0%	—	15.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	20.0%	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	26.8%	19.5%	12.7%	—	14.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	17.9%	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	20.7%	12.9%	10.1%	—	10.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	9.5%	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	25.5%	13.6%	11.3%	—	12.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	20.9%	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	15.4%	8.6%	8.3%	—	6.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	17.7%	6.7%	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	21.0%	7.5%	7.9%	3.0%	8.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	11.0%	—	—	3.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	26%	86.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	85.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	18%	86.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	86.5°F	2.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	82.8°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	82.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	85.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261023-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Austin · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗