KAUS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

37%

32%

16%

11%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 30.3¢Risks 30.35u

WN2NO 69.7¢Risks 69.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +69.65u · WN2 −69.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:28+00:00	17.4%	47.2%	12.8%	39.6%	50.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	17.4%	47.2%	15.0%	39.6%	50.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	17.4%	47.2%	15.0%	39.6%	50.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	17.4%	47.2%	15.0%	39.6%	50.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	17.4%	47.2%	15.0%	39.6%	50.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:38+00:00	15.9%	47.2%	15.0%	43.4%	41.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	15.9%	47.2%	15.0%	43.4%	41.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	15.9%	47.2%	15.0%	43.4%	41.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	15.9%	47.2%	15.0%	43.4%	41.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	15.9%	31.0%	10.8%	43.4%	41.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00	15.9%	31.0%	10.8%	43.4%	41.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:50+00:00	15.9%	31.0%	10.8%	43.4%	41.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	15.9%	31.0%	10.8%	43.4%	41.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	17.3%	31.5%	10.7%	43.4%	41.7%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	17.3%	31.5%	10.7%	43.4%	41.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00	17.3%	23.9%	10.7%	43.4%	41.7%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	17.3%	23.9%	10.7%	43.4%	41.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	17.3%	23.9%	11.5%	43.4%	41.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	17.3%	23.9%	11.5%	43.4%	41.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	17.3%	23.9%	11.5%	43.4%	41.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	17.3%	23.9%	11.5%	42.2%	42.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	17.3%	23.9%	11.5%	42.2%	42.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	17.3%	23.9%	11.5%	42.2%	42.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	17.3%	23.9%	11.5%	42.2%	42.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	17.3%	23.9%	11.5%	42.2%	42.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	17.3%	23.9%	11.1%	42.2%	42.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	17.3%	23.9%	11.1%	42.2%	42.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	17.3%	23.9%	11.1%	42.2%	42.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	17.3%	23.9%	11.1%	42.2%	42.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	17.3%	23.9%	11.1%	42.2%	42.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	17.3%	23.9%	11.1%	42.2%	42.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	17.3%	23.9%	11.1%	42.2%	42.8%
2026-10-19T15:13:49+00:00	14.6%	32.2%	11.2%	39.1%	39.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	14.6%	32.2%	11.2%	39.1%	39.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	14.6%	32.2%	11.2%	39.1%	39.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	14.6%	32.2%	10.3%	39.1%	39.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:40+00:00	14.6%	32.2%	10.3%	39.1%	39.0%
2026-10-19T19:00:11+00:00	14.6%	32.2%	10.3%	39.1%	39.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00	16.6%	32.2%	10.3%	37.1%	50.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	16.6%	32.2%	10.3%	37.1%	50.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	16.6%	32.2%	10.3%	37.1%	50.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	16.6%	32.2%	10.3%	37.1%	50.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	16.6%	32.2%	10.3%	37.1%	50.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	16.6%	32.2%	10.7%	37.1%	50.0%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	16.6%	32.2%	10.7%	37.1%	50.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	16.6%	32.2%	10.7%	37.1%	50.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	15.6%	32.2%	10.7%	37.1%	50.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	15.6%	32.2%	10.7%	37.1%	50.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	15.6%	32.2%	10.7%	37.1%	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	89.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	50%	88.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	86.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	87.3°F	2.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	83.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	83.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261024-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 89°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗