KAUS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

37%

32%

16%

11%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 30.3¢Risks 30.35u

WN2NO 69.7¢Risks 69.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +69.65u · WN2 −69.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	23.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	7.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	29.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	32.4%	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	30.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	0.0%	47.3%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	35.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	21.4%	25.7%	0.0%	—	19.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	28.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	17.0%	27.2%	18.4%	—	21.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	28.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	16.9%	16.4%	23.9%	—	18.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	17.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	18.9%	17.9%	16.9%	—	21.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	28.6%	18.9%	17.8%	—	13.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	8.5%	20.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	25.5%	19.0%	22.8%	20.8%	16.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	22.9%	—	—	11.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	89.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	50%	88.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	86.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	87.3°F	2.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	83.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	83.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261024-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 89°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗