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KAUS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
87%
ICON
70%
HRES
44%
AIFS
41%
WN2
38%
Consensus
62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 62.7¢Risks 62.70u
VS
WN2NO 37.3¢Risks 37.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +37.30u · WN2 −37.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 41.2% · 2026-10-20T04:05:15+00:00AIFS Single: 41.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00AIFS Single: 41.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00AIFS Single: 41.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00AIFS Single: 41.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00AIFS Single: 41.2% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00AIFS Single: 41.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00AIFS Single: 41.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00AIFS Single: 41.2% · 2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 41.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 41.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00AIFS Single: 41.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00AIFS Single: 41.2% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-20T04:05:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.9% · 2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.9% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.7% · 2026-10-20T04:05:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.4% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.5% · 2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.5% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-20T04:05:15+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00IFS HRES: 44.5% · 2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00IFS HRES: 44.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 44.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 44.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS HRES: 44.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00IFS HRES: 44.5% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00ICON: 70.3% · 2026-10-20T04:05:15+00:00ICON: 70.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00ICON: 70.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00ICON: 70.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00ICON: 70.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00ICON: 70.0% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00ICON: 70.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00ICON: 70.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00ICON: 70.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00ICON: 70.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00ICON: 70.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 70.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 70.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00ICON: 70.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00ICON: 70.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:0010-20 04:0510-20 09:2210-20 14:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:05:15+00:0041.2%84.8%40.7%51.8%70.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:0041.2%84.8%40.7%51.8%70.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:0041.2%84.8%42.4%51.8%70.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:0041.2%84.8%42.4%51.8%70.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:0041.2%84.8%42.4%51.8%70.3%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:0041.2%84.8%42.4%51.8%70.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:0041.2%84.8%42.4%51.8%70.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:0041.2%84.8%42.4%51.8%70.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:0041.2%84.8%42.4%51.8%70.0%
2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:0041.2%86.9%38.5%44.5%70.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:0041.2%86.9%38.5%44.5%70.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0041.2%86.9%38.5%44.5%70.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:0041.2%86.9%38.5%44.5%70.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:0041.2%86.9%38.5%44.5%70.0%
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:0041.2%86.9%38.5%44.5%70.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble87%86.3°F2.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON70%86.7°F6.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend56%84.0°F3.3°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%84.0°F5.2°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS HRES44%82.7°F5.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single41%82.4°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 238%82.3°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261025-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 84°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗