KAUS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

70%

44%

41%

38%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 62.7¢Risks 62.70u

WN2NO 37.3¢Risks 37.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +37.30u · WN2 −37.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	—	—	—	47.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	39.2%	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	33.6%	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	0.2%	40.6%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	35.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	20.9%	29.8%	0.9%	—	39.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	35.7%	23.7%	26.6%	—	40.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	51.5%	13.8%	35.1%	—	32.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	54.0%	24.2%	20.6%	30.9%	32.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	22.4%	—	—	27.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	87%	86.3°F	2.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	70%	86.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	84.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	82.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	41%	82.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	38%	82.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261025-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 84°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗