KAUS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

47%

26%

20%

15%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 33.3¢Risks 33.30u

WN2NO 66.7¢Risks 66.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +66.70u · WN2 −66.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:38+00:00	27.1%	64.0%	25.6%	39.0%	5.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	27.1%	64.0%	25.6%	39.0%	5.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	27.1%	64.0%	25.6%	39.0%	5.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	27.1%	64.0%	25.6%	39.0%	5.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:49+00:00	27.1%	51.3%	23.3%	29.2%	42.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	27.1%	51.3%	23.3%	29.2%	42.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	27.1%	51.3%	23.3%	29.2%	42.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	27.1%	51.3%	19.6%	29.2%	42.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:40+00:00	27.1%	51.3%	19.6%	29.2%	42.2%
2026-10-19T19:00:11+00:00	27.1%	51.3%	19.6%	29.2%	42.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00	25.2%	51.3%	19.6%	34.1%	54.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	25.2%	51.3%	19.6%	34.1%	54.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	25.2%	51.3%	19.6%	34.1%	54.5%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	25.2%	51.3%	19.6%	34.1%	54.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	25.2%	51.3%	19.6%	34.1%	54.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	25.2%	51.3%	19.0%	34.1%	54.5%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	25.2%	51.3%	19.0%	34.1%	54.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	25.2%	51.3%	19.0%	34.1%	54.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	21.8%	51.3%	19.0%	34.1%	54.5%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	21.8%	51.3%	19.0%	34.1%	54.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	21.8%	51.3%	19.0%	34.1%	54.5%
2026-10-20T04:05:17+00:00	21.8%	51.3%	19.0%	34.1%	54.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	21.8%	51.3%	19.0%	34.1%	54.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00	21.8%	51.3%	20.2%	34.1%	54.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	21.8%	51.3%	20.2%	34.1%	54.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	21.8%	51.3%	20.2%	34.1%	54.5%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00	20.3%	51.3%	20.2%	34.1%	51.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	20.3%	51.3%	20.2%	34.1%	51.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	20.3%	51.3%	20.2%	34.1%	51.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00	20.3%	51.3%	20.2%	34.1%	51.3%
2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00	20.3%	46.8%	15.3%	25.5%	51.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	20.3%	46.8%	15.3%	25.5%	51.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	20.3%	46.8%	15.3%	25.5%	51.3%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	20.3%	46.8%	15.3%	25.5%	51.3%
2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00	20.3%	46.8%	15.3%	25.5%	51.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	51%	86.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	86.3°F	2.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	32%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	82.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	22%	84.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	82.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	82.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261025-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Austin runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗