KAUS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

47%

26%

20%

15%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 33.3¢Risks 33.30u

WN2NO 66.7¢Risks 66.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +66.70u · WN2 −66.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	26.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	30.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	15.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	23.3%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	18.0%	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	0.0%	22.8%	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	9.0%	14.5%	0.2%	—	21.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	17.9%	10.3%	12.0%	—	21.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	29.6%	4.8%	16.9%	—	15.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	30.9%	9.7%	7.8%	13.6%	14.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	8.5%	—	—	11.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	51%	86.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	86.3°F	2.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	32%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	82.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	22%	84.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	82.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	82.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261025-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Austin runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗