KAUS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

34%

27%

20%

18%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 28.2¢Risks 14.12u

WN2NO 71.8¢Risks 35.88u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +35.88u · WN2 −35.88u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	—	—	—	23.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	18.9%	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	28.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	14.1%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	0.0%	18.0%	—	—	19.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	14.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	6.5%	10.9%	0.1%	—	16.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	13.6%	7.4%	8.7%	—	16.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	23.4%	3.2%	12.5%	—	11.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	7.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	24.2%	6.7%	5.3%	9.7%	10.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	5.8%	—	—	7.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	88.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	86.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	34%	83.5°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	83.5°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	82.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	82.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261025-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 88°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗