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KAUS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
36%
HRES
28%
AIFS
17%
WN2
15%
ICON
4%
Consensus
26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 19.9¢Risks 19.90u
VS
ICONNO 80.1¢Risks 80.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +80.10u · ICON −80.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-18T08:01:38+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.0% · 2026-10-18T08:01:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.3% · 2026-10-18T08:01:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.3% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.3% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.3% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS HRES: 27.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:38+00:00IFS HRES: 27.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS HRES: 27.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00IFS HRES: 27.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:38+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:0010-18 08:0110-18 09:3210-18 10:17
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:01:38+00:0016.9%36.0%15.3%27.8%3.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:0016.9%36.0%15.3%27.8%3.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:0016.9%36.0%15.3%27.8%3.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:0016.9%36.0%15.3%27.8%3.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend56%89.0°F3.3°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble36%87.5°F2.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES28%84.7°F6.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single17%83.0°F5.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 215%82.9°F5.5°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
ICON4%70.8°F9.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261025-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 89°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗