KAUS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

36%

28%

17%

15%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 19.9¢Risks 19.90u

ICONNO 80.1¢Risks 80.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +80.10u · ICON −80.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	20.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	9.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	15.0%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	23.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	10.7%	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	0.0%	13.9%	—	—	15.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	10.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	4.5%	7.9%	0.1%	—	12.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	10.0%	5.1%	6.2%	—	12.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	17.9%	2.0%	9.0%	—	7.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	18.4%	4.5%	3.4%	6.7%	7.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	3.8%	—	—	5.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	89.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	87.5°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	84.7°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	17%	83.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	82.9°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	4%	70.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261025-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 89°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗