KAUS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 21 · 18:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

13%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 11.1¢Risks 5.55u

WN2NO 88.9¢Risks 44.45u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.45u · WN2 −44.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-21T18:55:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:39+00:00	12.9%	23.8%	11.4%	22.8%	3.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	12.9%	23.8%	11.4%	22.8%	3.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	12.9%	23.8%	11.4%	22.8%	3.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	12.9%	23.8%	11.4%	22.8%	3.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	12.9%	22.7%	7.4%	22.8%	3.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00	12.9%	22.7%	7.4%	22.8%	3.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:50+00:00	12.9%	22.7%	7.4%	22.8%	3.0%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	12.9%	22.7%	7.4%	22.8%	3.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	14.0%	22.7%	7.4%	22.8%	3.0%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	14.0%	22.7%	7.4%	22.8%	3.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00	14.0%	18.2%	7.4%	22.8%	3.0%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	14.0%	18.2%	7.4%	22.8%	3.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	14.0%	18.2%	9.2%	22.8%	3.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	14.0%	18.2%	9.2%	22.8%	3.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	14.0%	18.2%	9.2%	22.8%	3.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	11.5%	18.2%	9.2%	17.6%	27.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	11.5%	18.2%	9.2%	17.6%	27.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	11.5%	18.2%	9.2%	17.6%	27.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	11.5%	18.2%	9.2%	17.6%	27.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	11.5%	18.2%	9.2%	17.6%	27.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	11.5%	18.2%	9.8%	17.6%	27.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	11.5%	18.2%	9.8%	17.6%	27.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	11.5%	18.2%	9.8%	17.6%	27.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	11.5%	18.2%	9.8%	17.6%	27.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	11.5%	18.2%	9.8%	17.6%	27.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	11.5%	18.2%	9.8%	17.6%	27.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	11.5%	18.2%	9.8%	17.6%	27.4%
2026-10-19T04:31:19+00:00	11.5%	18.2%	9.8%	17.6%	27.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	11.5%	18.2%	9.8%	17.6%	27.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	11.5%	18.2%	9.8%	17.6%	27.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:00	11.5%	18.2%	9.8%	17.6%	27.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:31+00:00	11.5%	18.2%	9.8%	15.9%	27.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	11.5%	18.2%	9.8%	15.9%	27.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	11.5%	18.2%	9.8%	15.9%	27.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	11.5%	18.2%	9.8%	15.9%	27.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:21+00:00	11.5%	18.2%	9.8%	15.9%	27.4%
2026-10-19T11:21:09+00:00	11.5%	18.4%	8.5%	15.9%	27.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00	11.5%	18.4%	8.5%	15.9%	27.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	11.5%	18.4%	8.5%	15.9%	27.4%
2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00	12.2%	18.4%	8.5%	15.9%	27.4%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00	12.2%	18.5%	8.5%	15.8%	26.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:49+00:00	12.2%	17.6%	8.5%	15.8%	26.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	12.2%	17.6%	8.5%	15.8%	26.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	12.2%	17.6%	8.5%	15.8%	26.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	12.2%	17.6%	6.7%	15.8%	26.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:40+00:00	12.2%	17.6%	6.7%	15.8%	26.9%
2026-10-19T19:00:11+00:00	12.2%	17.6%	6.7%	15.8%	26.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00	11.1%	17.6%	6.7%	19.4%	37.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	11.1%	17.6%	6.7%	19.4%	37.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	11.1%	17.6%	6.7%	19.4%	37.9%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	11.1%	17.6%	6.7%	19.4%	37.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	11.1%	17.6%	6.7%	19.4%	37.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	11.1%	16.8%	6.4%	19.4%	37.9%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	11.1%	16.8%	6.4%	19.4%	37.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	11.1%	16.8%	6.4%	19.4%	37.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	9.1%	16.8%	6.4%	19.4%	37.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	9.1%	16.8%	6.4%	19.4%	37.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	9.1%	16.8%	6.4%	19.4%	37.9%
2026-10-20T04:05:17+00:00	9.1%	16.8%	6.4%	19.4%	37.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	9.1%	16.8%	6.4%	19.4%	37.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00	9.1%	16.8%	7.0%	19.4%	37.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	9.1%	16.8%	7.0%	19.4%	37.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	9.1%	16.8%	7.0%	19.4%	37.9%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00	7.5%	16.8%	7.0%	19.4%	32.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	7.5%	16.8%	7.0%	19.4%	32.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	7.5%	16.8%	7.0%	19.4%	32.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00	7.5%	16.8%	7.0%	19.4%	32.3%
2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00	7.5%	10.0%	4.0%	12.0%	32.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	7.5%	10.0%	4.0%	12.0%	32.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	7.5%	10.0%	4.0%	12.0%	32.3%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	7.5%	10.0%	4.0%	12.0%	32.3%
2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00	7.5%	10.0%	4.0%	11.9%	32.3%
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00	7.5%	10.0%	4.0%	11.9%	32.3%
2026-10-20T15:32:32+00:00	7.5%	10.0%	4.0%	11.9%	32.3%
2026-10-20T16:18:00+00:00	7.5%	10.0%	4.0%	11.9%	32.3%
2026-10-20T17:03:27+00:00	6.9%	10.0%	4.9%	11.9%	32.3%
2026-10-20T17:48:40+00:00	6.9%	10.0%	4.9%	11.9%	32.3%
2026-10-20T18:33:47+00:00	6.9%	10.0%	4.9%	11.9%	32.3%
2026-10-20T19:19:00+00:00	6.9%	10.0%	4.9%	11.9%	32.3%
2026-10-20T20:04:14+00:00	6.9%	10.0%	4.9%	12.6%	27.2%
2026-10-20T20:49:28+00:00	6.9%	10.0%	4.9%	12.6%	27.2%
2026-10-20T21:34:34+00:00	6.9%	10.0%	4.9%	12.6%	27.2%
2026-10-20T22:19:41+00:00	6.9%	10.0%	4.9%	12.6%	27.2%
2026-10-20T23:04:50+00:00	5.7%	10.0%	3.7%	12.6%	27.2%
2026-10-20T23:50:06+00:00	5.7%	10.0%	3.7%	12.6%	27.2%
2026-10-21T00:35:15+00:00	5.7%	10.0%	3.7%	12.6%	27.2%
2026-10-21T01:20:53+00:00	5.7%	10.0%	3.7%	12.6%	27.2%
2026-10-21T02:06:22+00:00	5.7%	10.0%	3.7%	12.6%	27.2%
2026-10-21T02:51:44+00:00	5.7%	10.0%	3.7%	12.6%	27.2%
2026-10-21T03:36:56+00:00	5.7%	10.0%	3.7%	12.6%	27.2%
2026-10-21T04:23:18+00:00	7.5%	10.0%	3.7%	12.6%	27.2%
2026-10-21T05:09:08+00:00	7.5%	10.0%	3.7%	12.6%	27.2%
2026-10-21T05:54:17+00:00	7.5%	10.0%	3.7%	12.6%	27.2%
2026-10-21T06:39:27+00:00	7.5%	10.0%	3.7%	12.6%	27.2%
2026-10-21T07:25:45+00:00	7.5%	10.0%	3.7%	13.1%	11.2%
2026-10-21T08:11:58+00:00	7.5%	10.0%	3.7%	13.1%	11.2%
2026-10-21T08:57:21+00:00	7.5%	10.0%	3.7%	13.1%	11.2%
2026-10-21T09:42:36+00:00	7.5%	10.0%	3.7%	13.1%	11.2%
2026-10-21T11:13:37+00:00	5.3%	18.7%	3.8%	13.1%	11.2%
2026-10-21T11:59:00+00:00	5.3%	18.7%	3.8%	13.1%	11.2%
2026-10-21T12:44:12+00:00	5.3%	18.7%	3.8%	13.1%	11.2%
2026-10-21T13:29:43+00:00	5.3%	18.7%	3.8%	13.1%	11.2%
2026-10-21T14:23:00+00:00	5.2%	18.7%	3.8%	13.1%	11.2%
2026-10-21T15:08:09+00:00	5.2%	19.7%	3.8%	13.1%	11.2%
2026-10-21T15:53:22+00:00	5.2%	19.7%	3.8%	13.1%	11.2%
2026-10-21T16:39:27+00:00	4.4%	19.7%	3.8%	13.1%	11.2%
2026-10-21T17:25:01+00:00	4.4%	19.7%	2.5%	13.1%	11.2%
2026-10-21T18:10:11+00:00	4.4%	19.7%	2.5%	13.1%	11.2%
2026-10-21T18:55:24+00:00	4.4%	19.7%	2.5%	13.1%	11.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	20%	87.2°F	2.7°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	83.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
ICON	11%	83.6°F	4.8°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-21 15:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	81.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-21 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	82.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-21 06:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	82.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-21 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261025-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Austin · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗