KAUS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 21 · 19:40 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

11%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 11.1¢Risks 5.55u

WN2NO 88.9¢Risks 44.45u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.45u · WN2 −44.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	15.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	17.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	11.8%	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	8.0%	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	10.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	0.0%	10.5%	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	3.1%	5.6%	0.0%	—	9.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	5.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	7.1%	3.5%	4.2%	—	9.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	13.4%	1.3%	6.3%	—	5.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	13.6%	2.9%	2.2%	4.5%	4.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	2.4%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	9.0%	2.5%	11.6%	—	3.6%
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	6.4%	4.7%	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	4.7%	—	8.0%	—	5.2%
2026-10-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	4.1%	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	3.9%	2.5%	4.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	20%	87.2°F	2.7°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
ICON	11%	83.6°F	4.8°F	2026-10-21 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	83.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-21 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-21 15:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	81.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-21 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	82.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-21 06:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	82.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-21 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261025-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Austin · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗