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KAUS / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
68%
HRES
53%
EPS
50%
AIFS
48%
WN2
35%
Consensus
49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 51.4¢Risks 51.40u
VS
WN2NO 48.6¢Risks 48.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +48.60u · WN2 −48.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 39.7% · 2026-10-20T04:05:17+00:00AIFS Single: 39.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00AIFS Single: 39.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00AIFS Single: 39.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00AIFS Single: 39.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00AIFS Single: 48.5% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00AIFS Single: 48.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00AIFS Single: 48.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00AIFS Single: 48.5% · 2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 48.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 48.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00AIFS Single: 48.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00AIFS Single: 48.5% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.8% · 2026-10-20T04:05:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.8% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-20T04:05:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-10-20T04:05:17+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00IFS HRES: 53.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00IFS HRES: 53.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 53.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 53.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS HRES: 53.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00IFS HRES: 53.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00ICON: 28.2% · 2026-10-20T04:05:17+00:00ICON: 28.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00ICON: 28.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00ICON: 28.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00ICON: 28.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00ICON: 67.8% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00ICON: 67.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00ICON: 67.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00ICON: 67.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00ICON: 67.8% · 2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00ICON: 67.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 67.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 67.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00ICON: 67.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00ICON: 67.8% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:0010-20 04:0510-20 09:2210-20 14:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:05:17+00:0039.7%66.8%41.5%60.4%28.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:0039.7%66.8%41.5%60.4%28.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:0039.7%66.8%41.5%60.4%28.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:0039.7%66.8%41.5%60.4%28.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:0039.7%66.8%41.5%60.4%28.2%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:0048.5%66.8%41.5%60.4%67.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:0048.5%66.8%41.5%60.4%67.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:0048.5%66.8%41.5%60.4%67.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:0048.5%66.8%41.5%60.4%67.8%
2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:0048.5%50.0%35.0%53.0%67.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:0048.5%50.0%35.0%53.0%67.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0048.5%50.0%35.0%53.0%67.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:0048.5%50.0%35.0%53.0%67.8%
2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:0048.5%50.0%35.0%53.0%67.8%
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:0048.5%50.0%35.0%53.0%67.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON68%86.8°F7.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%84.0°F5.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS HRES53%84.0°F6.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble50%83.5°F3.3°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single48%83.3°F5.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend46%83.0°F4.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 235%81.7°F4.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261026-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 84°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗