KAUS / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

53%

50%

48%

35%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 51.4¢Risks 51.40u

WN2NO 48.6¢Risks 48.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +48.60u · WN2 −48.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	—	—	—	34.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	50.0%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	9.6%	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	0.2%	—	—	40.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	0.2%	16.7%	—	—	38.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	3.3%	12.6%	0.2%	—	29.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	22.6%	47.8%	44.2%	44.2%	17.9%	28.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	10.8%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	68%	86.8°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	84.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	53%	84.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	83.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	48%	83.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	83.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	35%	81.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261026-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 84°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗