KAUS / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST7%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

20%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 19.4¢Risks 19.35u

EPSNO 80.7¢Risks 80.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +80.65u · EPS −80.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:33:33+00:00	8.5%	8.5%	10.4%	17.6%	3.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	8.5%	8.5%	10.4%	17.6%	3.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	8.5%	8.5%	10.4%	17.6%	3.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	8.5%	8.5%	10.4%	17.6%	3.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:21+00:00	8.5%	8.5%	10.4%	17.6%	3.5%
2026-10-19T11:21:10+00:00	8.5%	6.3%	10.5%	17.6%	3.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00	8.5%	6.3%	10.5%	17.6%	3.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	8.5%	6.3%	10.5%	17.6%	3.5%
2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00	9.9%	6.3%	10.5%	17.6%	3.5%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00	9.9%	6.3%	10.5%	17.6%	3.5%
2026-10-19T15:13:49+00:00	9.9%	5.9%	10.5%	17.6%	3.5%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	9.9%	5.9%	10.5%	17.6%	3.5%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	9.9%	5.9%	10.5%	17.6%	3.5%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	9.9%	5.9%	9.4%	17.6%	3.5%
2026-10-19T18:14:40+00:00	9.9%	5.9%	9.4%	17.6%	3.5%
2026-10-19T19:00:11+00:00	9.9%	5.9%	9.4%	17.6%	3.5%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00	12.2%	5.9%	9.4%	25.2%	12.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	12.2%	5.9%	9.4%	25.2%	12.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	12.2%	5.9%	9.4%	25.2%	12.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	12.2%	5.9%	9.4%	25.2%	12.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	12.2%	5.9%	9.4%	25.2%	12.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	12.2%	5.9%	8.2%	25.2%	12.0%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	12.2%	5.9%	8.2%	25.2%	12.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	12.2%	5.9%	8.2%	25.2%	12.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	9.6%	5.9%	8.2%	25.2%	12.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	9.6%	5.9%	8.2%	25.2%	12.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	9.6%	5.9%	8.2%	25.2%	12.0%
2026-10-20T04:05:18+00:00	9.6%	5.9%	8.2%	25.2%	12.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	9.6%	5.9%	8.2%	25.2%	12.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00	9.6%	5.9%	8.2%	25.2%	12.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	9.6%	5.9%	8.2%	25.2%	12.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	9.6%	5.9%	8.2%	25.2%	12.0%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00	12.5%	5.9%	8.2%	25.2%	35.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	12.5%	5.9%	8.2%	25.2%	35.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	12.5%	5.9%	8.2%	25.2%	35.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00	12.5%	5.9%	8.2%	25.2%	35.2%
2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00	12.5%	3.5%	4.7%	20.2%	35.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	12.5%	3.5%	4.7%	20.2%	35.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	12.5%	3.5%	4.7%	20.2%	35.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	12.5%	3.5%	4.7%	20.2%	35.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00	12.5%	3.5%	4.7%	20.2%	35.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	35%	86.8°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	84.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	17%	84.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	12%	83.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	7%	83.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	5%	81.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	83.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261026-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Austin · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗