KBHM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

59%

47%

46%

22%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.8¢Risks 59.80u

ICONNO 40.2¢Risks 40.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.20u · ICON −40.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:28+00:00	56.8%	97.3%	43.6%	43.2%	24.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	56.8%	97.3%	43.6%	43.2%	24.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	56.8%	97.3%	43.6%	43.2%	24.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:20+00:00	56.8%	97.3%	44.9%	43.2%	24.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	56.8%	97.3%	44.9%	43.2%	24.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	56.8%	97.3%	44.9%	43.2%	24.0%
2026-10-16T19:36:59+00:00	56.8%	97.3%	44.9%	43.2%	22.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:27+00:00	56.8%	97.3%	44.9%	43.2%	22.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	56.8%	97.3%	44.9%	43.2%	22.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	56.8%	97.3%	44.9%	43.2%	22.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:03+00:00	56.8%	97.3%	44.9%	46.1%	22.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:29+00:00	56.8%	97.3%	47.4%	46.1%	22.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:36+00:00	56.8%	97.3%	47.4%	46.1%	22.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	56.8%	97.3%	47.4%	46.1%	22.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	58.8%	97.3%	47.4%	46.1%	22.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	58.8%	97.3%	47.4%	46.1%	22.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	58.8%	97.3%	47.4%	46.1%	22.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	58.8%	97.3%	47.4%	46.1%	22.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	73.5°F	2.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0007
National Blend	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1673
AIFS Single	59%	69.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.1697
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.1954
WeatherNext 2	47%	68.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2767
IFS HRES	46%	68.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2905
ICON	22%	65.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.6037

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261018-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗