KBHM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

59%

47%

46%

22%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.8¢Risks 59.80u

ICONNO 40.2¢Risks 40.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.20u · ICON −40.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	62.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	—	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	2.8%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	4.9%	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	0.6%	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	1.6%	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	48.6%	54.2%	20.4%	24.1%	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	72.2%	72.2%	61.6%	—	58.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	65.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	57.6%	84.5%	73.0%	59.8%	—	53.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	50.8%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	49.2%	73.2%	83.2%	54.8%	—	49.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	1.8%	84.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	67.8%	85.2%	36.1%	—	43.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	41.5%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	26.9%	37.1%	71.6%	28.4%	—	20.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	41.1%	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	25.9%	50.9%	14.4%	—	13.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	32.6%	46.2%	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	33.9%	39.4%	19.0%	—	19.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	24.1%	42.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	29.4%	38.8%	16.3%	—	22.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	21.3%	31.6%	45.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	27.3%	43.5%	16.9%	—	21.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	19.8%	27.6%	45.5%	0.0%	—	23.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	24.2%	47.7%	19.9%	—	25.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	27.3%	47.6%	17.5%	—	24.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	21.7%	51.2%	19.1%	18.2%	23.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	16.6%	47.4%	16.6%	—	21.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.0%	20.0%	51.3%	18.2%	12.7%	21.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	35.0%	48.6%	15.6%	—	19.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	40.0%	51.4%	18.2%	22.2%	19.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	38.1%	48.5%	13.6%	—	13.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.2%	36.1%	43.7%	12.5%	16.1%	8.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	41.8%	43.4%	20.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	73.5°F	2.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0007
National Blend	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1673
AIFS Single	59%	69.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.1697
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.1954
WeatherNext 2	47%	68.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2767
IFS HRES	46%	68.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2905
ICON	22%	65.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.6037

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261018-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗