KBHM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

65%

61%

58%

52%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.4¢Risks 29.70u

AIFSNO 40.6¢Risks 20.30u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +20.30u · AIFS −20.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T11:19:49+00:00	16.6%	73.0%	27.8%	66.5%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	16.6%	73.0%	27.8%	66.5%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	16.6%	73.0%	27.8%	66.5%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00	35.3%	73.0%	27.8%	66.5%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00	35.4%	73.0%	27.9%	66.5%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:35+00:00	35.4%	59.3%	27.9%	66.5%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00	35.4%	59.3%	27.9%	66.5%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:00	35.4%	59.3%	27.9%	66.5%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:00+00:00	35.4%	59.3%	29.2%	66.5%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:10+00:00	35.4%	59.3%	29.2%	66.5%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	35.4%	59.3%	29.2%	66.5%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00	47.9%	59.3%	29.2%	55.0%	54.5%
2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00	47.9%	59.3%	29.2%	55.0%	54.5%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00	47.9%	59.3%	29.2%	55.0%	54.5%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	47.9%	59.3%	29.2%	55.0%	54.5%
2026-10-11T22:44:13+00:00	47.9%	59.3%	29.2%	55.0%	54.5%
2026-10-11T23:29:32+00:00	47.9%	59.3%	35.1%	55.0%	54.4%
2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00	47.9%	59.3%	35.1%	55.0%	54.4%
2026-10-12T01:00:12+00:00	47.9%	59.3%	35.1%	55.0%	54.4%
2026-10-12T01:45:20+00:00	58.5%	59.3%	35.1%	55.0%	54.4%
2026-10-12T02:30:28+00:00	58.5%	59.3%	35.1%	55.0%	54.4%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	58.5%	59.3%	35.1%	55.0%	54.4%
2026-10-12T04:01:20+00:00	58.5%	59.3%	35.1%	55.0%	54.4%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	58.5%	59.3%	35.1%	55.0%	54.4%
2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00	58.5%	59.3%	45.2%	55.0%	54.4%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	58.5%	59.3%	45.2%	55.0%	54.4%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	58.5%	59.3%	45.2%	55.0%	54.4%
2026-10-12T07:48:14+00:00	49.2%	59.3%	45.2%	60.8%	65.0%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00	49.2%	59.3%	45.2%	60.8%	65.0%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	49.2%	59.3%	45.2%	60.8%	65.0%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	49.2%	59.3%	45.2%	60.8%	65.0%
2026-10-12T10:50:09+00:00	49.2%	59.3%	45.2%	60.8%	65.0%
2026-10-12T11:35:30+00:00	49.2%	59.3%	57.8%	60.8%	65.0%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	49.2%	66.7%	57.8%	60.8%	65.0%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	49.2%	66.7%	57.8%	60.8%	65.0%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	52.3%	66.7%	57.8%	60.8%	65.0%
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00	52.3%	66.5%	57.8%	60.8%	65.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	66%	74.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.4422
ICON	65%	75.2°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.4225
IFS HRES	61%	74.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.3697
WeatherNext 2	58%	73.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.3341
National Blend	58%	74.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.3318
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2852
AIFS Single	52%	72.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.2735

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261018-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗