KBHM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

65%

61%

58%

52%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.4¢Risks 29.70u

AIFSNO 40.6¢Risks 20.30u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +20.30u · AIFS −20.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	88.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	0.6%	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	1.1%	—	—	35.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	0.2%	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	27.5%	6.3%	7.9%	—	24.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	44.2%	44.2%	33.0%	—	30.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	59.8%	43.9%	30.3%	—	25.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	45.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	42.9%	56.4%	24.8%	—	20.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	0.2%	58.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	35.3%	58.3%	11.6%	—	15.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	14.2%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	11.3%	37.9%	7.3%	—	4.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	13.0%	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	5.8%	18.4%	2.3%	—	2.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	8.1%	14.8%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	8.2%	10.7%	3.2%	—	3.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	4.4%	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	5.8%	9.4%	2.2%	—	3.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	6.2%	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	4.5%	10.4%	2.0%	—	2.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	4.2%	10.7%	0.0%	—	3.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	3.1%	11.0%	2.2%	—	3.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	3.5%	10.2%	1.6%	—	2.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	2.1%	11.2%	1.7%	1.6%	2.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	1.2%	8.7%	1.2%	—	1.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	1.4%	9.5%	1.2%	0.6%	1.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	3.7%	7.6%	0.8%	—	1.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	4.4%	7.8%	0.9%	1.3%	1.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	3.4%	6.0%	0.4%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.6%	4.1%	0.3%	0.5%	0.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.1%	3.4%	0.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	66%	74.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.4422
ICON	65%	75.2°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.4225
IFS HRES	61%	74.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.3697
WeatherNext 2	58%	73.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.3341
National Blend	58%	74.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.3318
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2852
AIFS Single	52%	72.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.2735

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261018-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗