KBHM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 07:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

19%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 10.2¢Risks 5.08u

WN2NO 89.8¢Risks 44.92u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +44.92u · WN2 −44.92u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:01+00:00	0.2%	23.1%	1.8%	9.5%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00	0.2%	23.1%	1.8%	9.5%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00	0.2%	23.1%	1.8%	9.5%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00	0.2%	23.1%	1.8%	9.5%	—
2026-10-11T10:33:47+00:00	0.2%	23.1%	1.8%	9.5%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00	0.9%	12.3%	0.2%	9.5%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00	1.0%	12.3%	0.2%	9.5%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00	2.2%	8.3%	0.3%	5.4%	15.7%
2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00	2.2%	8.3%	0.3%	5.4%	15.7%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00	2.2%	8.3%	0.3%	5.4%	15.7%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	2.2%	8.3%	0.3%	5.4%	15.7%
2026-10-11T22:44:13+00:00	2.2%	8.3%	0.3%	5.4%	15.7%
2026-10-11T23:29:32+00:00	2.2%	8.3%	0.5%	5.4%	15.8%
2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00	2.2%	8.3%	0.5%	5.4%	15.8%
2026-10-12T01:00:12+00:00	2.2%	8.3%	0.5%	5.4%	15.8%
2026-10-12T01:45:20+00:00	4.0%	8.3%	0.5%	5.4%	15.8%
2026-10-12T02:30:28+00:00	4.0%	8.3%	0.5%	5.4%	15.8%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	4.0%	8.3%	0.5%	5.4%	15.8%
2026-10-12T04:01:20+00:00	4.0%	8.3%	0.5%	5.4%	15.8%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	4.0%	8.3%	0.5%	5.4%	15.8%
2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00	4.0%	8.3%	1.0%	5.4%	15.8%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	4.0%	8.3%	1.0%	5.4%	15.8%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	4.0%	8.3%	1.0%	5.4%	15.8%
2026-10-12T07:48:14+00:00	1.8%	8.3%	1.0%	8.0%	11.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00	1.8%	8.3%	1.0%	8.0%	11.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	1.8%	8.3%	1.0%	8.0%	11.8%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	1.8%	8.3%	1.0%	8.0%	11.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:09+00:00	1.8%	8.3%	1.0%	8.0%	11.8%
2026-10-12T11:35:30+00:00	1.8%	8.3%	1.3%	8.0%	11.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	1.8%	2.6%	1.3%	8.0%	11.8%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	1.8%	2.6%	1.3%	8.0%	11.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	2.2%	2.6%	1.3%	8.0%	11.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00	2.2%	2.8%	1.4%	8.0%	11.9%
2026-10-12T15:26:59+00:00	2.2%	2.8%	1.4%	8.0%	11.9%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	2.2%	2.3%	1.4%	8.0%	11.9%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	2.2%	2.3%	0.9%	8.0%	11.9%
2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00	2.2%	2.3%	0.9%	8.0%	11.9%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	2.2%	2.3%	0.9%	8.0%	11.9%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	2.2%	2.3%	0.9%	8.0%	11.9%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00	2.6%	2.3%	0.9%	3.6%	18.9%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	2.6%	2.3%	0.9%	3.6%	18.9%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	2.6%	2.3%	0.9%	3.6%	18.9%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	2.6%	2.3%	0.9%	3.6%	18.9%
2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:00	2.6%	2.3%	1.1%	3.6%	18.9%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	2.6%	2.3%	1.1%	3.6%	18.9%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	2.6%	2.3%	1.1%	3.6%	18.9%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	2.6%	2.3%	1.1%	3.6%	18.9%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	1.7%	2.3%	1.1%	3.6%	18.9%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	1.7%	2.3%	1.1%	3.6%	18.9%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	1.7%	2.3%	1.1%	3.6%	18.9%
2026-10-13T04:15:49+00:00	1.7%	2.3%	1.1%	3.6%	18.9%
2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00	1.7%	2.3%	1.4%	3.6%	18.9%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	1.7%	2.3%	1.4%	3.6%	18.9%
2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00	1.7%	2.3%	1.4%	3.6%	18.9%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	1.7%	2.3%	1.4%	3.6%	18.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	19%	77.3°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0357
NWS forecast	5%	75.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.0024
National Blend	4%	74.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0018
IFS HRES	4%	71.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0013
IFS Ensemble	2%	74.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0005
AIFS Single	2%	72.3°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0003
WeatherNext 2	1%	73.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0002

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261018-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗