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KBHM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 07:17 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
19%
HRES
4%
EPS
2%
AIFS
2%
WN2
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 10.2¢Risks 5.08u
VS
WN2NO 89.8¢Risks 44.92u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +44.92u · WN2 −44.92u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.3% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.7% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.1% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.8% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.7% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 49.4% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.7% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.4% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.3% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.6% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.7% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.6% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.4% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0010-03 06:0010-11 00:0010-18 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:001.9%—————
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:001.2%————0.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:000.4%—————
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:001.1%————7.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:0010.3%—————
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:002.7%————13.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:0014.6%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:007.7%————7.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:009.6%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:002.7%————6.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:000.2%————6.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:000.1%————2.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:009.1%————4.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0013.1%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0044.1%————4.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0038.8%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:009.7%————2.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0049.4%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:008.8%————2.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:000.0%————1.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%——3.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:000.1%—0.0%——1.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%———
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:000.2%—0.0%——1.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:000.3%—0.0%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%——0.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:000.2%—0.0%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:000.4%0.6%0.0%0.0%—0.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:000.7%—0.2%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:000.3%1.5%1.5%0.7%—0.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.4%—0.8%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.4%3.2%1.2%0.4%—0.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:000.2%—1.2%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.9%2.1%0.2%—0.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%2.0%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.4%1.8%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%1.0%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%——0.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON19%77.3°F7.0°F2026-10-12 12:000.0357
NWS forecast5%75.0°F5.1°F2026-10-13 03:000.0024
National Blend4%74.0°F5.5°F2026-10-13 00:000.0018
IFS HRES4%71.7°F6.6°F2026-10-12 12:000.0013
IFS Ensemble2%74.3°F4.6°F2026-10-12 00:000.0005
AIFS Single2%72.3°F5.3°F2026-10-12 18:000.0003
WeatherNext 21%73.4°F4.6°F2026-10-12 18:000.0002

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261018-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗