KBHM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

83%

70%

61%

49%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 73.6¢Risks 73.55u

ICONNO 26.4¢Risks 26.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +26.45u · ICON −26.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:05+00:00	72.7%	96.7%	76.0%	57.5%	71.5%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	72.7%	96.7%	76.0%	57.5%	71.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	72.7%	96.7%	77.5%	57.5%	71.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	72.7%	96.7%	77.5%	57.5%	71.5%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	72.7%	96.7%	77.5%	57.5%	71.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	72.7%	96.7%	77.5%	57.5%	71.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	77.8%	96.7%	77.5%	53.4%	67.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	77.8%	96.7%	77.5%	53.4%	67.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	77.8%	96.7%	77.5%	53.4%	67.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	77.8%	96.7%	77.5%	53.4%	67.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	77.8%	96.7%	70.4%	53.4%	67.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	77.8%	96.7%	70.4%	53.4%	67.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	77.8%	96.7%	70.4%	53.4%	67.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	69.3%	96.7%	70.4%	53.4%	67.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	69.3%	96.7%	70.4%	53.4%	67.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00	69.3%	96.7%	70.4%	53.4%	67.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	69.3%	96.7%	70.4%	53.4%	67.4%
2026-10-17T04:41:38+00:00	82.0%	96.7%	65.7%	62.6%	59.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	82.0%	96.7%	67.6%	62.6%	59.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	82.0%	96.7%	67.6%	62.6%	59.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	82.0%	96.7%	67.6%	62.6%	59.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:25+00:00	84.8%	96.7%	67.6%	61.4%	49.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	84.8%	96.7%	67.6%	61.4%	49.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:35+00:00	84.8%	96.7%	67.6%	61.4%	49.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	84.8%	96.7%	67.6%	61.4%	49.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	84.8%	96.7%	67.6%	61.4%	49.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:03+00:00	84.8%	98.4%	70.3%	61.4%	49.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	84.8%	98.4%	70.3%	61.4%	49.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	84.8%	98.4%	70.3%	61.4%	49.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	83.1%	98.4%	70.3%	61.4%	49.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	83.1%	98.1%	70.3%	61.4%	49.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	79.9°F	2.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	78.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	76.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	75.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
ICON	49%	74.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗