KBHM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

83%

70%

61%

49%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 73.6¢Risks 73.55u

ICONNO 26.4¢Risks 26.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +26.45u · ICON −26.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	—	—	—	—	47.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	21.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	52.5%	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	60.9%	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	56.7%	10.2%	20.8%	—	—	56.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	62.4%	56.3%	6.5%	9.6%	—	56.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	58.0%	53.6%	84.8%	29.7%	—	39.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	26.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	40.9%	64.2%	38.0%	—	33.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	55.6%	46.0%	25.5%	—	38.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	0.0%	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	50.0%	40.1%	12.0%	—	37.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	47.4%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.9%	49.1%	45.6%	10.9%	—	35.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	42.9%	49.1%	—	—	42.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	55.5%	44.5%	50.9%	17.8%	—	44.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	59.4%	51.9%	43.4%	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	42.3%	49.0%	19.7%	—	46.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	42.0%	45.0%	—	—	49.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	44.9%	46.9%	30.3%	0.0%	49.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	57.4%	46.8%	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	60.8%	44.5%	25.5%	—	45.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	55.6%	44.4%	0.0%	—	42.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	50.0%	46.5%	21.5%	0.0%	32.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	53.6%	41.6%	21.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	56.2%	43.8%	19.9%	35.4%	42.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	57.7%	48.7%	19.1%	—	34.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	43.3%	46.0%	55.4%	17.3%	36.8%	38.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	41.7%	56.9%	52.8%	18.2%	—	43.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	62.8%	58.6%	30.5%	55.8%	52.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	66.2%	21.3%	—	32.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	79.9°F	2.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	78.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	76.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	75.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
ICON	49%	74.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗