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KBHM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 13 · 10:19 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
37%
WN2
34%
EPS
27%
HRES
24%
ICON
16%
Consensus
30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 26.5¢Risks 26.50u
VS
ICONNO 73.5¢Risks 73.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +73.50u · ICON −73.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 37.4% · 2026-10-13T08:03:21+00:00AIFS Single: 37.4% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00AIFS Single: 37.4% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00AIFS Single: 37.4% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.0% · 2026-10-13T08:03:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.0% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.0% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.0% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-13T08:03:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00IFS HRES: 24.4% · 2026-10-13T08:03:21+00:00IFS HRES: 24.4% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00IFS HRES: 24.4% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00IFS HRES: 24.4% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00ICON: 15.6% · 2026-10-13T08:03:21+00:00ICON: 15.6% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00ICON: 15.6% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00ICON: 15.6% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:0010-13 08:0310-13 09:3410-13 10:19
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T08:03:21+00:0037.4%27.0%34.0%24.4%15.6%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:0037.4%27.0%34.0%24.4%15.6%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:0037.4%27.0%34.0%24.4%15.6%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:0037.4%27.0%34.0%24.4%15.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend55%82.0°F4.4°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
AIFS Single37%79.7°F5.6°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 234%79.3°F5.3°F2026-10-12 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble27%79.6°F3.1°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
IFS HRES24%77.1°F6.3°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
ICON16%71.5°F9.9°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261020-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗