KBHM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 13 · 10:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

34%

27%

24%

16%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 26.5¢Risks 26.50u

ICONNO 73.5¢Risks 73.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +73.50u · ICON −73.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	16.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	14.9%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	19.3%	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	0.7%	2.3%	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	14.1%	0.3%	0.6%	—	14.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	11.7%	39.9%	3.5%	—	6.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	5.8%	16.4%	5.0%	—	3.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	10.4%	6.7%	2.0%	—	4.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	0.0%	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	7.1%	4.3%	0.4%	—	3.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	5.9%	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	5.9%	5.0%	0.3%	—	2.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	3.9%	5.5%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	3.9%	5.5%	0.5%	—	3.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	5.3%	3.4%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	2.9%	4.2%	0.5%	—	3.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	2.5%	3.0%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	2.6%	3.0%	1.0%	0.0%	3.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	4.7%	2.6%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	5.0%	2.0%	0.5%	—	2.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	3.3%	1.7%	0.0%	—	1.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	2.1%	1.7%	0.2%	0.0%	0.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	2.2%	1.0%	0.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	2.1%	0.9%	0.1%	0.5%	0.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.9%	1.1%	0.1%	—	0.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.7%	1.3%	0.1%	0.4%	0.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.2%	0.9%	0.0%	—	0.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.3%	1.0%	0.1%	0.8%	0.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.3%	0.0%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	82.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	79.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	79.3°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	79.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	77.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	16%	71.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261020-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗