KBHM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 4.2¢Risks 1.04u

ICONNO 95.9¢Risks 23.96u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +23.96u · ICON −23.96u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T11:05:17+00:00	30.9%	11.5%	26.0%	19.7%	13.4%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00	30.9%	11.5%	26.0%	19.7%	13.4%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	30.9%	11.5%	26.0%	19.7%	13.4%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	30.9%	11.5%	26.0%	19.7%	13.4%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	30.9%	11.5%	26.0%	19.7%	13.4%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	30.9%	15.1%	26.0%	19.7%	13.4%
2026-10-13T15:41:25+00:00	30.9%	15.1%	26.0%	19.7%	13.4%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	30.9%	15.1%	26.0%	19.7%	13.4%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00	30.9%	15.1%	21.7%	19.7%	13.4%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	30.9%	15.1%	21.7%	19.7%	13.4%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	30.9%	15.1%	21.7%	19.7%	13.4%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	35.4%	15.1%	21.7%	19.7%	39.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	35.4%	15.1%	21.7%	19.7%	39.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	35.4%	15.1%	21.7%	19.7%	39.7%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	35.4%	15.1%	21.7%	19.7%	39.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	35.4%	15.1%	21.7%	23.9%	39.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	35.4%	15.1%	30.8%	23.9%	39.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	35.4%	15.1%	30.8%	23.9%	39.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	35.4%	15.1%	30.8%	23.9%	39.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	30.9%	15.1%	30.8%	23.9%	39.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	30.9%	15.1%	30.8%	23.9%	39.7%
2026-10-14T02:59:46+00:00	30.9%	15.1%	30.8%	23.9%	39.7%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	30.9%	15.1%	30.8%	23.9%	39.7%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	30.9%	15.1%	30.8%	23.9%	39.7%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00	30.9%	15.1%	30.8%	23.9%	39.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	30.9%	15.1%	30.8%	23.9%	39.7%
2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00	30.9%	15.1%	30.8%	23.9%	39.7%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	29.2%	15.1%	30.8%	23.9%	29.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	29.2%	15.1%	30.8%	23.9%	29.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	29.2%	15.1%	30.8%	23.9%	29.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	29.2%	15.1%	30.8%	23.9%	29.0%
2026-10-14T10:32:47+00:00	29.2%	15.1%	30.8%	10.8%	29.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	29.2%	4.4%	13.8%	10.8%	29.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	29.2%	4.4%	13.8%	10.8%	29.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	29.2%	4.4%	13.8%	10.8%	29.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	24.3%	4.4%	13.8%	10.8%	29.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	25.2%	4.4%	14.2%	10.9%	29.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:16+00:00	25.2%	5.2%	14.2%	10.9%	29.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	25.2%	5.2%	14.2%	10.9%	29.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	25.2%	5.2%	14.2%	10.9%	29.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	25.2%	5.2%	14.7%	10.9%	29.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	25.2%	5.2%	14.7%	10.9%	29.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	25.2%	5.2%	14.7%	10.9%	29.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	11.8%	5.2%	14.7%	11.5%	21.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	11.8%	5.2%	14.7%	11.5%	21.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	11.8%	5.2%	14.7%	11.5%	21.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	11.8%	5.2%	14.7%	11.5%	21.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	11.8%	5.2%	14.7%	11.5%	21.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	11.8%	5.2%	13.3%	11.5%	21.4%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	11.8%	5.2%	13.3%	11.5%	21.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	11.8%	5.2%	13.3%	11.5%	21.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	11.4%	5.2%	13.3%	11.5%	21.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	11.4%	5.2%	13.3%	11.5%	21.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	11.4%	5.2%	13.3%	11.5%	21.4%
2026-10-15T04:02:06+00:00	11.4%	5.2%	13.3%	11.5%	21.4%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	11.4%	5.2%	13.3%	11.5%	21.4%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	11.4%	5.2%	15.2%	11.5%	21.4%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	11.4%	5.2%	15.2%	11.5%	21.4%
2026-10-15T07:03:36+00:00	11.4%	5.2%	15.2%	11.5%	21.4%
2026-10-15T07:49:37+00:00	24.7%	5.2%	15.2%	11.6%	21.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	24.7%	5.2%	15.2%	11.6%	21.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	24.7%	5.2%	15.2%	11.6%	21.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	24.7%	5.2%	15.2%	11.6%	21.4%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	24.7%	5.2%	15.2%	11.6%	21.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:17+00:00	24.7%	5.2%	10.7%	11.6%	21.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	24.7%	5.2%	10.7%	11.6%	21.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:18+00:00	24.7%	5.2%	10.7%	11.6%	21.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	15.7%	5.2%	10.7%	11.6%	22.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	15.7%	5.2%	10.7%	11.6%	22.1%
2026-10-15T15:34:06+00:00	15.7%	6.7%	10.7%	11.6%	22.1%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	15.7%	6.7%	10.7%	11.6%	22.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	15.7%	6.7%	11.7%	11.6%	22.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	15.7%	6.7%	11.7%	11.6%	22.1%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	15.7%	6.7%	11.7%	11.6%	22.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	15.7%	6.7%	11.7%	11.6%	22.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	19.9%	6.7%	11.7%	9.7%	18.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	19.9%	6.7%	11.7%	9.7%	18.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	19.9%	6.7%	11.7%	9.7%	18.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	19.9%	6.7%	11.7%	9.7%	18.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	19.9%	6.7%	7.9%	9.7%	18.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	19.9%	6.7%	7.9%	9.7%	18.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	19.9%	6.7%	7.9%	9.7%	18.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	13.4%	6.7%	7.9%	9.7%	18.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	13.4%	6.7%	7.9%	9.7%	18.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00	13.4%	6.7%	7.9%	9.7%	18.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	13.4%	6.7%	7.9%	9.7%	18.8%
2026-10-16T04:24:05+00:00	13.4%	6.7%	7.9%	9.7%	18.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	13.4%	6.7%	7.2%	9.7%	18.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	13.4%	6.7%	7.2%	9.7%	18.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	13.4%	6.7%	7.2%	9.7%	18.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	15.8%	6.7%	7.2%	9.7%	9.4%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	15.8%	6.7%	7.2%	9.7%	9.4%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	15.8%	6.7%	7.2%	9.7%	9.4%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	15.8%	6.7%	7.2%	9.7%	9.4%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	15.8%	6.7%	7.2%	9.7%	9.4%
2026-10-16T11:12:16+00:00	15.8%	5.7%	3.8%	9.7%	9.4%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	15.8%	5.7%	3.8%	9.7%	9.4%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	15.8%	5.7%	3.8%	9.7%	9.4%
2026-10-16T13:28:28+00:00	18.6%	5.7%	3.8%	7.2%	9.4%
2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00	18.5%	5.7%	3.8%	7.2%	9.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:29+00:00	18.5%	6.7%	3.8%	7.2%	9.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	18.5%	6.7%	3.8%	7.2%	9.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	18.5%	6.7%	3.8%	7.2%	9.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:20+00:00	18.5%	6.7%	5.1%	7.2%	9.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	18.5%	6.7%	5.1%	7.2%	9.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	18.5%	6.7%	5.1%	7.2%	9.4%
2026-10-16T19:36:59+00:00	18.5%	6.7%	5.1%	7.2%	7.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:27+00:00	18.5%	6.7%	5.1%	7.2%	7.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	18.5%	6.7%	5.1%	7.2%	7.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	18.5%	6.7%	5.1%	7.2%	7.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:03+00:00	18.5%	6.7%	5.1%	10.0%	7.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:29+00:00	18.5%	6.7%	4.0%	10.0%	7.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:36+00:00	18.5%	6.7%	4.0%	10.0%	7.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	18.5%	6.7%	4.0%	10.0%	7.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	20.3%	6.7%	4.0%	10.0%	7.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	20.3%	6.7%	4.0%	10.0%	7.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	20.3%	6.7%	4.0%	10.0%	7.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	20.3%	6.7%	4.0%	10.0%	7.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:03+00:00	20.0%	15.0%	3.3%	6.7%	2.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	20.0%	15.0%	3.3%	6.7%	2.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	20.0%	15.0%	3.3%	6.7%	2.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	18.1%	15.0%	3.3%	6.7%	2.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:36+00:00	18.1%	15.1%	3.3%	6.7%	2.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	18.1%	15.1%	3.3%	6.7%	2.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	18.1%	15.1%	3.5%	6.7%	2.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	18.1%	15.1%	3.5%	6.7%	2.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	18.1%	15.1%	3.5%	6.7%	2.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	18.1%	15.1%	3.5%	6.7%	2.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	18.7%	15.1%	3.5%	7.3%	2.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	18.7%	15.1%	3.5%	7.3%	2.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	18.7%	15.1%	3.5%	7.3%	2.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	18.7%	15.1%	3.5%	7.3%	2.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	18.7%	15.1%	4.3%	7.3%	2.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	18.7%	15.0%	4.3%	7.3%	2.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	18.7%	15.0%	4.3%	7.3%	2.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	18.7%	15.0%	4.3%	7.3%	2.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	19.4%	15.0%	4.3%	7.3%	2.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	19.4%	15.0%	4.3%	7.3%	2.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	19.4%	15.0%	4.3%	7.3%	2.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	19.4%	15.0%	7.3%	7.3%	2.5%
2026-10-18T08:01:13+00:00	17.5%	15.0%	7.3%	4.6%	2.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	17.5%	15.0%	7.3%	4.6%	2.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	17.5%	15.0%	7.3%	4.6%	2.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	17.5%	15.0%	7.3%	4.6%	2.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:43+00:00	17.5%	17.2%	3.3%	4.6%	2.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	17.5%	17.2%	3.3%	4.6%	2.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	17.5%	17.2%	3.3%	4.6%	2.0%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	17.5%	17.2%	3.3%	4.6%	2.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	13.9%	17.7%	3.3%	4.6%	2.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:43+00:00	13.9%	17.7%	3.3%	4.6%	2.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	8.5%	7.9%	2.5%	2.6%	0.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	8.5%	7.9%	2.5%	2.6%	0.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	8.5%	7.9%	2.5%	2.6%	0.4%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	5.2%	7.9%	2.5%	2.6%	0.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	5.2%	7.9%	2.5%	2.6%	0.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	5.2%	7.9%	2.5%	2.6%	0.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	5.2%	7.9%	2.5%	2.6%	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	13%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	78.2°F	3.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	79.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	77.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	75.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	76.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	73.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261020-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 83°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗