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KBHM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
8%
AIFS
5%
HRES
3%
WN2
2%
ICON
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 4.2¢Risks 1.04u
VS
ICONNO 95.9¢Risks 23.96u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +23.96u · ICON −23.96u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.3% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.9% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.9% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.3% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.8% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.1% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.9% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.3% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 36.5% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.2% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.9% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.8% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.3% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.4% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.6% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-05 06:0010-12 18:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:004.2%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:004.8%————11.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:001.6%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:006.8%————8.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0011.0%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:0011.0%————6.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0046.3%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:005.9%————9.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:003.8%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0018.9%————6.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0027.9%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0018.9%————7.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:000.5%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:001.4%————9.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.8%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:001.1%————15.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0011.9%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0012.3%————13.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:006.3%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:006.6%————17.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0014.5%—0.0%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0013.8%————10.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0014.1%—2.4%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0028.7%————14.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0024.8%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0015.3%—11.6%——16.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0011.2%—1.3%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:002.3%—15.2%——11.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0011.9%—2.3%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0011.8%0.4%1.5%——11.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0012.0%—36.5%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0013.7%10.5%0.2%0.3%—10.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0011.1%—27.1%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0010.3%8.4%33.0%2.3%—4.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:008.3%—1.6%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:002.7%3.9%12.2%3.3%—2.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:002.2%—0.3%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:009.0%7.2%4.5%1.2%—2.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:003.8%0.0%10.6%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:005.8%4.7%2.7%0.2%—2.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:003.0%3.8%4.1%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:004.1%3.8%3.1%0.1%—1.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:004.8%2.4%3.4%——2.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:004.3%2.3%3.4%0.3%—2.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:004.8%3.2%1.9%——2.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:004.9%1.6%2.4%0.2%—2.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:003.5%1.4%1.7%——2.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:003.4%1.4%1.6%0.5%0.0%1.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:003.1%2.6%1.4%——1.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:002.8%2.8%1.0%0.2%—1.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:001.6%1.7%0.8%0.0%—0.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:001.2%1.0%0.8%0.1%0.0%0.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.9%1.0%0.4%0.1%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.7%0.9%0.4%0.0%0.2%0.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.2%0.8%0.4%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.2%0.3%0.5%0.0%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.4%0.3%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.5%0.4%0.0%0.3%0.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.4%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast13%80.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble8%78.2°F3.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend6%79.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single5%77.5°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES3%75.3°F3.7°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%76.8°F2.9°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
ICON<1%73.2°F3.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261020-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 83°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗