KBHM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

86%

79%

48%

43%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 66.0¢Risks 66.00u

ICONNO 34.0¢Risks 34.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +34.00u · ICON −34.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:30:42+00:00	65.7%	87.0%	78.2%	41.1%	48.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	65.7%	87.0%	78.2%	41.1%	48.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	65.7%	87.0%	78.2%	41.1%	48.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	65.7%	87.0%	78.2%	41.1%	48.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:04+00:00	69.9%	87.0%	78.2%	43.6%	54.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	69.9%	87.0%	78.2%	43.6%	54.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	69.9%	87.0%	78.2%	43.6%	54.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	69.9%	87.0%	78.2%	43.6%	54.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:09+00:00	69.9%	87.0%	78.2%	43.6%	54.9%
2026-10-19T11:20:49+00:00	69.9%	85.1%	78.9%	43.6%	54.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	69.9%	85.1%	78.9%	43.6%	54.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	69.9%	85.1%	78.9%	43.6%	54.9%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	67.6%	85.1%	78.9%	43.6%	54.9%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	67.7%	85.1%	79.0%	43.6%	54.9%
2026-10-20T04:04:29+00:00	74.4%	83.1%	81.2%	39.0%	47.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	74.4%	83.1%	81.2%	39.0%	47.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	74.4%	83.1%	85.9%	39.0%	47.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	74.4%	83.1%	85.9%	39.0%	47.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	74.4%	83.1%	85.9%	39.0%	47.5%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	78.8%	83.1%	85.9%	39.0%	43.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	78.8%	83.1%	85.9%	39.0%	43.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	78.8%	83.1%	85.9%	39.0%	43.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	78.8%	83.1%	85.9%	39.0%	43.0%
2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00	78.8%	89.0%	85.8%	48.2%	43.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	78.8%	89.0%	85.8%	48.2%	43.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	78.8%	89.0%	85.8%	48.2%	43.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	78.8%	89.0%	85.8%	48.2%	43.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	80.6°F	2.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	87%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	86%	81.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	80.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	77.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	43%	76.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261023-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 78°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗