KBHM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

86%

79%

48%

43%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 66.0¢Risks 66.00u

ICONNO 34.0¢Risks 34.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +34.00u · ICON −34.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	—	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	24.0%	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	75.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	—	—	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	—	3.4%	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	68.2%	—	4.6%	—	—	44.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	35.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	6.4%	45.3%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	49.3%	46.5%	47.2%	2.4%	—	49.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	33.7%	42.7%	24.9%	—	41.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	17.4%	41.7%	17.4%	—	37.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	37.0%	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	35.2%	39.7%	20.6%	—	35.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	0.6%	36.4%	—	—	30.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	26.5%	39.3%	14.3%	—	26.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	21.4%	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	42.2%	40.5%	44.8%	16.7%	—	32.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	33.4%	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	44.5%	32.2%	46.3%	14.9%	—	27.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	39.7%	48.1%	—	—	27.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	51.0%	36.6%	51.0%	14.2%	29.6%	33.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	51.0%	—	—	22.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	80.6°F	2.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	87%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	86%	81.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	80.9°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	77.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	43%	76.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261023-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 78°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗