KBHM / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

55%

52%

20%

18%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 52.5¢Risks 52.50u

HRESNO 47.5¢Risks 47.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.50u · HRES −47.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:30:42+00:00	50.7%	84.8%	59.3%	19.0%	39.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	50.7%	84.8%	61.0%	19.0%	39.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	50.7%	84.8%	61.0%	19.0%	39.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	50.7%	84.8%	61.0%	19.0%	39.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:04+00:00	52.4%	84.8%	61.0%	27.3%	26.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	52.4%	84.8%	61.0%	27.3%	26.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	52.4%	84.8%	61.0%	27.3%	26.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	52.4%	84.8%	61.0%	27.3%	26.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:09+00:00	52.4%	84.8%	61.0%	27.3%	26.2%
2026-10-19T11:20:49+00:00	52.4%	87.8%	60.6%	27.3%	26.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	52.4%	87.8%	60.6%	27.3%	26.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	52.4%	87.8%	60.6%	27.3%	26.2%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	45.2%	87.8%	60.6%	27.3%	26.2%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	45.2%	87.8%	60.6%	27.2%	26.1%
2026-10-19T15:13:28+00:00	45.2%	87.0%	60.6%	27.2%	26.1%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	45.2%	87.0%	60.6%	27.2%	26.1%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	45.2%	87.0%	60.6%	27.2%	26.1%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	45.2%	87.0%	56.8%	27.2%	26.1%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	45.2%	87.0%	56.8%	27.2%	26.1%
2026-10-19T18:59:57+00:00	45.2%	87.0%	56.8%	27.2%	26.1%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	47.6%	87.0%	56.8%	18.0%	19.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	47.6%	87.0%	56.8%	18.0%	19.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	47.6%	87.0%	56.8%	18.0%	19.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:01+00:00	47.6%	87.0%	56.8%	18.0%	19.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	47.6%	87.0%	56.8%	18.0%	19.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	47.6%	87.0%	54.8%	18.0%	19.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	47.6%	87.0%	54.8%	18.0%	19.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	47.6%	87.0%	54.8%	18.0%	19.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:46+00:00	52.4%	87.0%	54.8%	18.0%	19.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	52.4%	87.0%	54.8%	18.0%	19.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	52.4%	87.0%	54.8%	18.0%	19.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	87%	79.2°F	2.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	55%	77.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	76.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	76.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	20%	71.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	71.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261024-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗