KBHM / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

55%

52%

20%

18%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 52.5¢Risks 52.50u

HRESNO 47.5¢Risks 47.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.50u · HRES −47.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	58.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	37.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	19.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	41.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	58.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	51.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	65.2%	—	—	53.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	58.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	62.6%	1.3%	52.7%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	29.8%	7.7%	49.3%	2.6%	—	31.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	31.7%	24.3%	32.3%	21.0%	—	22.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	26.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	13.8%	31.6%	9.0%	—	16.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	9.3%	26.1%	6.9%	—	17.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	0.9%	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	4.9%	30.0%	3.9%	—	12.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	3.1%	27.4%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	29.9%	10.5%	27.7%	5.2%	14.6%	15.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	30.2%	—	—	11.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	87%	79.2°F	2.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	55%	77.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	76.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	76.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	20%	71.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	71.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261024-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗