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KBHM / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
49%
WN2
34%
AIFS
30%
ICON
24%
HRES
9%
Consensus
37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 28.8¢Risks 28.85u
VS
HRESNO 71.2¢Risks 71.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +71.15u · HRES −71.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 34.2% · 2026-10-18T14:55:43+00:00AIFS Single: 34.2% · 2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00AIFS Single: 34.2% · 2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00AIFS Single: 34.2% · 2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00AIFS Single: 34.2% · 2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00AIFS Single: 34.2% · 2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00AIFS Single: 29.0% · 2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00AIFS Single: 29.0% · 2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00AIFS Single: 29.0% · 2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00AIFS Single: 29.0% · 2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00AIFS Single: 29.0% · 2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00AIFS Single: 29.0% · 2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00AIFS Single: 29.0% · 2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00AIFS Single: 29.0% · 2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00AIFS Single: 29.6% · 2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00AIFS Single: 29.6% · 2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00AIFS Single: 29.6% · 2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00AIFS Single: 29.6% · 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.8% · 2026-10-18T14:55:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.6% · 2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.6% · 2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.6% · 2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.6% · 2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.6% · 2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.6% · 2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.6% · 2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.6% · 2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.6% · 2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.6% · 2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.6% · 2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.6% · 2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.6% · 2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.6% · 2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.6% · 2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.6% · 2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.6% · 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.2% · 2026-10-18T14:55:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.2% · 2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.2% · 2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.2% · 2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.2% · 2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.2% · 2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.2% · 2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.2% · 2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.2% · 2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.2% · 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00IFS HRES: 12.8% · 2026-10-18T14:55:43+00:00IFS HRES: 12.8% · 2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00IFS HRES: 12.8% · 2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00IFS HRES: 12.8% · 2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00IFS HRES: 12.8% · 2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00IFS HRES: 12.8% · 2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00IFS HRES: 9.1% · 2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00IFS HRES: 9.1% · 2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00IFS HRES: 9.1% · 2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00IFS HRES: 9.1% · 2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00IFS HRES: 9.1% · 2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00IFS HRES: 9.1% · 2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00IFS HRES: 9.1% · 2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00IFS HRES: 9.1% · 2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00IFS HRES: 9.1% · 2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00IFS HRES: 9.1% · 2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00IFS HRES: 9.1% · 2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00IFS HRES: 9.1% · 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00ICON: 33.2% · 2026-10-18T14:55:43+00:00ICON: 33.2% · 2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00ICON: 33.2% · 2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00ICON: 33.2% · 2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00ICON: 33.2% · 2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00ICON: 33.2% · 2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00ICON: 24.2% · 2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00ICON: 24.2% · 2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00ICON: 24.2% · 2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00ICON: 24.2% · 2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00ICON: 24.2% · 2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00ICON: 24.2% · 2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00ICON: 24.2% · 2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00ICON: 24.2% · 2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00ICON: 24.2% · 2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00ICON: 24.2% · 2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00ICON: 24.2% · 2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00ICON: 24.2% · 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:0010-18 14:5510-18 21:4310-19 03:45
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:55:43+00:0034.2%65.8%34.2%12.8%33.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:0034.2%48.6%34.2%12.8%33.2%
2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:0034.2%48.6%34.2%12.8%33.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:0034.2%48.6%35.0%12.8%33.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:0034.2%48.6%35.0%12.8%33.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:0034.2%48.6%35.0%12.8%33.2%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:0029.0%48.6%35.0%9.1%24.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:0029.0%48.6%35.0%9.1%24.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:0029.0%48.6%35.0%9.1%24.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:0029.0%48.6%35.0%9.1%24.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:0029.0%48.6%35.0%9.1%24.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:0029.0%48.6%34.2%9.1%24.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:0029.0%48.6%34.2%9.1%24.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:0029.0%48.6%34.2%9.1%24.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:0029.6%48.6%34.2%9.1%24.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:0029.6%48.6%34.2%9.1%24.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:0029.6%48.6%34.2%9.1%24.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:0029.6%48.6%34.2%9.1%24.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend56%80.0°F3.3°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%80.0°F5.9°F2026-10-18 14:00Pending
IFS Ensemble49%79.4°F2.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 234%77.6°F4.7°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
AIFS Single30%76.6°F5.4°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
ICON24%74.5°F7.2°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
IFS HRES9%70.7°F6.6°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261024-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗