KBHM / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

49%

34%

30%

24%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 28.8¢Risks 28.85u

HRESNO 71.2¢Risks 71.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +71.15u · HRES −71.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	23.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	9.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	25.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	46.1%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	0.3%	33.0%	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	2.5%	29.2%	0.7%	—	15.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	16.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	10.6%	15.6%	8.7%	—	9.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	4.8%	14.6%	2.8%	—	6.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	2.7%	10.8%	1.9%	—	6.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	0.1%	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	1.1%	12.5%	0.9%	—	3.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	0.6%	10.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	2.8%	10.5%	1.1%	4.3%	4.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	11.6%	—	—	3.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	80.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	80.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	79.4°F	2.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	77.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	30%	76.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	24%	74.5°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	70.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261024-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗