KBHM / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST7%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

19%

14%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 11.5¢Risks 5.73u

ICONNO 88.5¢Risks 44.27u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.27u · ICON −44.27u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:25+00:00	52.8%	62.2%	50.0%	12.6%	8.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	52.8%	62.2%	50.0%	12.6%	8.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:35+00:00	52.8%	62.2%	50.0%	12.6%	8.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	52.8%	62.2%	50.0%	12.6%	8.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	52.8%	62.2%	50.0%	12.6%	8.7%
2026-10-18T04:13:56+00:00	26.0%	51.4%	29.2%	7.0%	19.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	26.0%	51.4%	27.2%	7.0%	19.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	26.0%	51.4%	27.2%	7.0%	19.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	26.0%	51.4%	27.2%	7.0%	19.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	26.0%	51.4%	27.2%	7.0%	19.9%
2026-10-18T08:01:13+00:00	23.0%	51.4%	27.2%	7.5%	23.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	23.0%	51.4%	27.2%	7.5%	23.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	23.0%	51.4%	27.2%	7.5%	23.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	23.0%	51.4%	27.2%	7.5%	23.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:43+00:00	23.0%	36.6%	20.2%	7.5%	23.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	23.0%	36.6%	20.2%	7.5%	23.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	23.0%	36.6%	20.2%	7.5%	23.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	23.0%	36.6%	20.2%	7.5%	23.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	21.9%	36.9%	20.2%	7.5%	23.8%
2026-10-18T14:55:45+00:00	21.9%	36.9%	20.2%	7.5%	23.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	21.9%	22.8%	20.2%	7.5%	23.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00	21.9%	22.8%	20.2%	7.5%	23.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	21.9%	22.8%	20.8%	7.5%	23.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00	21.9%	22.8%	20.8%	7.5%	23.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	21.9%	22.8%	20.8%	7.5%	23.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	17.8%	22.8%	20.8%	5.1%	16.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	17.8%	22.8%	20.8%	5.1%	16.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	17.8%	22.8%	20.8%	5.1%	16.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	17.8%	22.8%	20.8%	5.1%	16.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	17.8%	22.8%	20.8%	5.1%	16.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	17.8%	22.8%	20.2%	5.1%	16.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	17.8%	22.8%	20.2%	5.1%	16.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	17.8%	22.8%	20.2%	5.1%	16.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	18.3%	22.8%	20.2%	5.1%	16.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	18.3%	22.8%	20.2%	5.1%	16.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	18.3%	22.8%	20.2%	5.1%	16.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	18.3%	22.8%	20.2%	5.1%	16.4%
2026-10-19T04:30:42+00:00	18.3%	22.8%	20.2%	5.1%	16.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	18.3%	22.8%	21.4%	5.1%	16.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	18.3%	22.8%	21.4%	5.1%	16.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	18.3%	22.8%	21.4%	5.1%	16.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:04+00:00	17.1%	22.8%	21.4%	7.1%	7.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	17.1%	22.8%	21.4%	7.1%	7.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	17.1%	22.8%	21.4%	7.1%	7.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	17.1%	22.8%	21.4%	7.1%	7.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:09+00:00	17.1%	22.8%	21.4%	7.1%	7.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:49+00:00	17.1%	18.0%	17.1%	7.1%	7.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	17.1%	18.0%	17.1%	7.1%	7.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	17.1%	18.0%	17.1%	7.1%	7.3%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	12.9%	18.0%	17.1%	7.1%	7.3%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	12.8%	18.0%	17.1%	7.1%	7.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:28+00:00	12.8%	16.9%	17.1%	7.1%	7.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	12.8%	16.9%	17.1%	7.1%	7.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	12.8%	16.9%	17.1%	7.1%	7.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	12.8%	16.9%	14.8%	7.1%	7.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	12.8%	16.9%	14.8%	7.1%	7.2%
2026-10-19T18:59:57+00:00	12.8%	16.9%	14.8%	7.1%	7.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	14.2%	16.9%	14.8%	3.7%	4.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	14.2%	16.9%	14.8%	3.7%	4.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	14.2%	16.9%	14.8%	3.7%	4.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:01+00:00	14.2%	16.9%	14.8%	3.7%	4.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	14.2%	16.9%	14.8%	3.7%	4.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	14.2%	16.9%	13.7%	3.7%	4.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	14.2%	16.9%	13.7%	3.7%	4.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	14.2%	16.9%	13.7%	3.7%	4.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:46+00:00	17.1%	16.9%	13.7%	3.7%	4.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	17.1%	16.9%	13.7%	3.7%	4.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	17.1%	16.9%	13.7%	3.7%	4.7%
2026-10-20T04:04:30+00:00	17.1%	16.9%	13.7%	3.7%	4.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	17.1%	16.9%	13.7%	3.7%	4.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	17.1%	16.9%	15.9%	3.7%	4.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	17.1%	16.9%	15.9%	3.7%	4.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	17.1%	16.9%	15.9%	3.7%	4.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	19.7%	16.9%	15.9%	3.7%	3.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	19.7%	16.9%	15.9%	3.7%	3.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	19.7%	16.9%	15.9%	3.7%	3.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	19.7%	16.9%	15.9%	3.7%	3.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00	19.7%	19.1%	14.1%	3.8%	3.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	19.7%	19.1%	14.1%	3.8%	3.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	19.7%	19.1%	14.1%	3.8%	3.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	19.7%	19.1%	14.1%	3.8%	3.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	20%	77.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	19%	79.4°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	77.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	72.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	3%	72.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261024-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 82°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗