KBHM / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST7%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

19%

14%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 11.5¢Risks 5.73u

ICONNO 88.5¢Risks 44.27u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.27u · ICON −44.27u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	—	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	15.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	5.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	—	—	—	22.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	33.6%	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	0.1%	21.8%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	1.1%	18.4%	0.2%	—	8.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	5.3%	8.4%	4.2%	—	4.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	2.0%	7.6%	1.1%	—	2.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	1.0%	5.1%	0.7%	—	2.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	0.0%	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	0.4%	5.8%	0.2%	—	1.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	0.2%	4.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	0.9%	4.5%	0.3%	1.6%	1.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	5.0%	—	—	1.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	20%	77.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	19%	79.4°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	77.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	72.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	3%	72.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261024-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 82°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗