KBHM / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

45%

43%

35%

16%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 31.6¢Risks 31.60u

HRESNO 68.4¢Risks 68.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +68.40u · HRES −68.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	51.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	—	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	35.2%	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	59.8%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	36.0%	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	27.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	0.5%	29.4%	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	18.4%	24.1%	0.9%	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	17.0%	16.1%	3.9%	—	14.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	11.0%	16.0%	8.1%	—	12.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	15.4%	26.1%	9.3%	20.6%	16.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	25.6%	—	—	13.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	77.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	77.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	76.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	45%	75.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	43%	75.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	35%	73.7°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	69.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261025-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗