KBHM / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

37%

36%

18%

15%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 26.5¢Risks 26.45u

EPSNO 73.6¢Risks 73.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +73.55u · EPS −73.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T11:20:49+00:00	35.1%	16.7%	40.7%	10.7%	6.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	35.1%	16.7%	40.7%	10.7%	6.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	35.1%	16.7%	40.7%	10.7%	6.3%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	37.1%	16.7%	40.7%	10.7%	6.3%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	37.0%	16.7%	40.7%	10.7%	6.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:28+00:00	37.0%	15.0%	40.7%	10.7%	6.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	37.0%	15.0%	40.7%	10.7%	6.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	37.0%	15.0%	40.7%	10.7%	6.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	37.0%	15.0%	39.9%	10.7%	6.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	37.0%	15.0%	39.9%	10.7%	6.4%
2026-10-19T18:59:57+00:00	37.0%	15.0%	39.9%	10.7%	6.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	35.7%	15.0%	39.9%	17.6%	37.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	35.7%	15.0%	39.9%	17.6%	37.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	35.7%	15.0%	39.9%	17.6%	37.9%
2026-10-19T22:01:01+00:00	35.7%	15.0%	39.9%	17.6%	37.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	35.7%	15.0%	39.9%	17.6%	37.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	35.7%	15.0%	36.2%	17.6%	37.9%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	35.7%	15.0%	36.2%	17.6%	37.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	35.7%	15.0%	36.2%	17.6%	37.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:46+00:00	37.0%	15.0%	36.2%	17.6%	37.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	37.0%	15.0%	36.2%	17.6%	37.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	37.0%	15.0%	36.2%	17.6%	37.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	80.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	38%	76.4°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	77.6°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	36%	77.7°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	73.5°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	76.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261026-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗