KBHM / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

37%

36%

18%

15%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 26.5¢Risks 26.45u

EPSNO 73.6¢Risks 73.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +73.55u · EPS −73.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	21.9%	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	16.4%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	0.6%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	0.0%	7.0%	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	8.7%	3.6%	0.2%	—	10.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	12.4%	22.1%	2.3%	21.0%	14.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	21.6%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	80.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	38%	76.4°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	77.6°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	36%	77.7°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	73.5°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	76.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261026-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗