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KBIL / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 11 · 02:59 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
84%
ICON
84%
HRES
83%
WN2
82%
EPS
48%
Consensus
79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 66.3¢Risks 66.35u
VS
EPSNO 33.7¢Risks 33.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +33.65u · EPS −33.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 81.0% · 2026-10-10T22:28:01+00:00AIFS Single: 81.0% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00AIFS Single: 81.0% · 2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:00AIFS Single: 81.0% · 2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00AIFS Single: 84.3% · 2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00AIFS Single: 84.3% · 2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00AIFS Single: 84.3% · 2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.4% · 2026-10-10T22:28:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.4% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.4% · 2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.4% · 2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.4% · 2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.4% · 2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.4% · 2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.5% · 2026-10-10T22:28:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.9% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.9% · 2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.9% · 2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.9% · 2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.9% · 2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.9% · 2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00IFS HRES: 83.2% · 2026-10-10T22:28:01+00:00IFS HRES: 83.2% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00IFS HRES: 83.2% · 2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:00IFS HRES: 83.2% · 2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00IFS HRES: 83.2% · 2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00IFS HRES: 83.2% · 2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00IFS HRES: 83.2% · 2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00ICON: 83.5% · 2026-10-10T22:28:01+00:00ICON: 83.5% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00ICON: 83.5% · 2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:00ICON: 83.5% · 2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00ICON: 83.5% · 2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00ICON: 83.5% · 2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00ICON: 83.5% · 2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:0010-10 22:2810-11 00:4310-11 02:59
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-10T22:28:01+00:0081.0%48.4%82.5%83.2%83.5%
2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:0081.0%48.4%81.9%83.2%83.5%
2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:0081.0%48.4%81.9%83.2%83.5%
2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:0081.0%48.4%81.9%83.2%83.5%
2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:0084.3%48.4%81.9%83.2%83.5%
2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:0084.3%48.4%81.9%83.2%83.5%
2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:0084.3%48.4%81.9%83.2%83.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single84%73.1°F5.6°F2026-10-10 18:000.0246
ICON84%77.1°F9.8°F2026-10-10 12:000.0272
IFS HRES83%73.6°F6.3°F2026-10-10 12:000.0282
WeatherNext 282%72.0°F4.9°F2026-10-10 12:000.0328
National Blend54%68.0°F5.0°F2026-10-10 06:000.2116
IFS Ensemble48%67.1°F10.0°F2026-10-10 00:000.2663

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261017-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 10 · 22:28 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗