KBIL / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 11 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

84%

83%

82%

48%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 66.3¢Risks 66.35u

EPSNO 33.7¢Risks 33.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +33.65u · EPS −33.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	64.7%	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	44.2%	—	—	69.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	—	1.8%	—	—	80.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.7%	81.6%	6.0%	0.1%	—	76.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	45.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	65.7%	85.2%	—	83.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	64.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	73.0%	77.8%	88.2%	—	80.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	85.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	65.5%	74.5%	91.3%	—	80.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	78.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	67.8%	78.7%	85.2%	—	87.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	21.4%	83.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	69.3%	72.4%	87.4%	—	89.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	73.6%	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	88.1%	86.1%	92.1%	—	92.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	61.2%	85.7%	88.7%	—	—	94.1%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	76.8%	90.6%	90.2%	—	94.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	78.1%	92.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	86.6%	93.9%	93.6%	—	97.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	91.2%	95.0%	—	—	98.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	89.6%	95.5%	95.3%	0.0%	98.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	87.7%	92.5%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	89.5%	93.2%	96.7%	—	99.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	66.4%	96.7%	94.5%	97.5%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	96.7%	95.1%	97.5%	87.6%	99.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	63.9%	94.4%	95.1%	97.8%	—	99.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	58.0%	93.9%	95.0%	98.8%	92.1%	99.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	66.2%	98.6%	96.8%	98.6%	—	99.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	99.9%	96.8%	99.2%	94.9%	99.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	74.0%	100.0%	98.9%	99.8%	—	99.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	66.8%	100.0%	98.7%	99.9%	98.2%	100.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	79.7%	100.0%	99.5%	99.9%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	84%	73.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-10 18:00	0.0246
ICON	84%	77.1°F	9.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.0272
IFS HRES	83%	73.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.0282
WeatherNext 2	82%	72.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.0328
National Blend	54%	68.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-10 06:00	0.2116
IFS Ensemble	48%	67.1°F	10.0°F	2026-10-10 00:00	0.2663

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261017-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 10 · 22:28 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗