KBIL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

42%

18%

14%

13%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 41.2¢Risks 41.20u

AIFSNO 58.8¢Risks 58.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +58.80u · AIFS −58.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:27:44+00:00	8.8%	64.4%	23.5%	53.6%	23.8%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	8.8%	56.0%	23.5%	53.6%	23.8%
2026-10-12T16:58:07+00:00	8.8%	56.0%	9.5%	53.6%	23.8%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	8.8%	56.0%	9.5%	53.6%	23.8%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	8.8%	56.0%	9.5%	53.6%	23.8%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	8.8%	56.0%	9.5%	53.6%	23.8%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	12.5%	56.0%	9.5%	49.4%	72.0%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	12.5%	56.0%	9.5%	49.4%	72.0%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	12.5%	56.0%	9.5%	49.4%	72.0%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	12.5%	56.0%	9.5%	49.4%	72.0%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00	12.5%	56.0%	12.3%	49.4%	72.0%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	12.5%	56.0%	12.3%	49.4%	72.0%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	12.5%	56.0%	12.3%	49.4%	72.0%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	12.5%	56.0%	12.3%	49.4%	72.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	9.7%	56.0%	12.3%	49.4%	72.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	9.7%	56.0%	12.3%	49.4%	72.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	9.7%	56.0%	12.3%	49.4%	72.0%
2026-10-13T04:16:23+00:00	9.7%	56.0%	12.3%	49.4%	72.0%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	9.7%	56.0%	8.7%	49.4%	72.0%
2026-10-13T05:46:54+00:00	9.7%	56.0%	8.7%	49.4%	72.0%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	9.7%	56.0%	8.7%	49.4%	72.0%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	9.7%	56.0%	8.7%	49.4%	72.0%
2026-10-13T08:04:16+00:00	7.7%	56.0%	8.7%	30.2%	13.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	7.7%	56.0%	8.7%	30.2%	13.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	7.7%	56.0%	8.7%	30.2%	13.4%
2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00	7.7%	56.0%	8.7%	30.2%	13.4%
2026-10-13T11:05:25+00:00	7.7%	70.0%	5.8%	30.2%	13.4%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	7.7%	70.0%	5.8%	30.2%	13.4%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	7.7%	70.0%	5.8%	30.2%	13.4%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	7.7%	70.0%	5.8%	30.2%	13.4%
2026-10-13T14:06:05+00:00	8.8%	70.0%	6.0%	30.2%	13.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	8.8%	69.1%	6.0%	30.2%	13.5%
2026-10-13T15:41:51+00:00	8.8%	69.1%	6.0%	30.2%	13.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	8.8%	69.1%	6.0%	30.4%	13.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	8.8%	69.1%	10.7%	30.4%	13.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	8.8%	69.1%	10.7%	30.4%	13.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	8.8%	69.1%	10.7%	30.4%	13.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	11.7%	69.1%	10.7%	30.4%	17.5%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	11.7%	69.1%	10.7%	30.4%	17.5%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	11.7%	69.1%	10.7%	30.4%	17.5%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	11.7%	69.1%	10.7%	30.4%	17.5%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	11.7%	69.1%	10.7%	41.9%	17.5%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	11.7%	69.1%	13.7%	41.8%	17.5%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	11.7%	69.1%	13.7%	41.8%	17.5%
2026-10-14T00:43:55+00:00	11.7%	69.1%	13.7%	41.8%	17.5%
2026-10-14T01:29:14+00:00	13.3%	69.1%	13.7%	41.8%	17.5%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	13.3%	69.1%	13.7%	41.8%	17.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	69%	70.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.4775
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2905
National Blend	44%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.1954
IFS HRES	42%	67.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1747
ICON	18%	63.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0306
WeatherNext 2	14%	64.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0188
AIFS Single	13%	63.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0177

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261018-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗