KBIL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

42%

18%

14%

13%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 41.2¢Risks 41.20u

AIFSNO 58.8¢Risks 58.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +58.80u · AIFS −58.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	32.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	0.4%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	46.2%	—	—	47.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	65.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	50.6%	—	—	22.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	74.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	70.6%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	47.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	40.3%	53.5%	1.5%	—	43.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	5.9%	55.1%	26.6%	—	37.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	54.6%	11.8%	29.6%	—	35.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	3.4%	6.4%	4.3%	—	20.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	4.5%	2.5%	16.2%	—	20.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	1.8%	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	5.2%	3.1%	9.0%	—	11.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.4%	7.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	2.8%	1.3%	12.9%	—	11.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.7%	3.2%	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	1.7%	4.6%	6.2%	—	7.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	2.7%	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.8%	5.5%	3.2%	—	8.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.2%	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.1%	0.9%	3.3%	—	8.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.1%	0.9%	0.0%	—	7.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	0.8%	1.1%	—	2.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.2%	0.6%	1.1%	—	2.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	0.9%	0.7%	2.1%	2.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.0%	1.5%	1.1%	—	1.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.3%	1.4%	2.6%	2.8%	1.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.8%	1.4%	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.7%	0.9%	0.9%	2.9%	1.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.3%	0.9%	5.1%	—	4.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.5%	1.8%	3.7%	1.0%	1.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.9%	1.1%	4.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	69%	70.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.4775
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2905
National Blend	44%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.1954
IFS HRES	42%	67.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1747
ICON	18%	63.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0306
WeatherNext 2	14%	64.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0188
AIFS Single	13%	63.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0177

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261018-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗