KBIL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

60%

49%

45%

43%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 53.7¢Risks 53.70u

EPSNO 46.3¢Risks 46.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.30u · EPS −46.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:45+00:00	45.4%	43.4%	58.2%	68.9%	58.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	45.4%	43.4%	58.2%	68.9%	58.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	45.4%	43.4%	58.2%	68.9%	58.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	45.4%	43.4%	50.0%	68.9%	58.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	45.4%	43.4%	50.0%	68.9%	58.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	45.4%	43.4%	50.0%	68.9%	58.0%
2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00	46.3%	43.4%	50.0%	68.9%	59.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	46.3%	43.4%	50.0%	68.9%	59.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	46.3%	43.4%	50.0%	68.9%	59.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	46.3%	43.4%	50.0%	68.9%	59.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	46.3%	43.4%	50.0%	64.0%	59.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	46.3%	43.4%	48.8%	64.0%	59.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	46.3%	43.4%	48.8%	64.0%	59.9%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	46.3%	43.4%	48.8%	64.0%	59.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	45.4%	43.4%	48.8%	64.0%	59.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	45.4%	43.4%	48.8%	64.0%	59.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	45.4%	43.4%	48.8%	64.0%	59.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	45.4%	43.4%	48.8%	64.0%	59.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	64%	67.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.4096
ICON	60%	66.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.3588
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.3036
WeatherNext 2	49%	65.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2381
AIFS Single	45%	65.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.2061
National Blend	44%	65.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1936
IFS Ensemble	43%	64.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1884

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗